Temperature trends in the permafrost of the Northern Hemisphere: Comparison of model calculations with observations

Global warming weakening the inherent stability of glaciers and permafrost

“…In East Siberia, the MAGT continued to increase between 1961 and 1996 [28], and the MAGT at 10 m increased by approximately 0.02°C a À1 based on observed and estimated data [27]. The average rate of warming of the MAGT at a depth of 3 m was 0.03°C a À1 across northern Russia [41]. From Yakutsk city in the east to the Bykovsky Peninsula in the northwest, for most regions across Russia, the warming rate of the MAGT at depths of 10-20 m was 0.04-0.06°C a À1 during the past 20-30 years [1,[26][27][28] (Fig.…”

“…The change in permafrost temperature varied greatly from place to place due to the impact of multiple local factors, such as snow cover, slope aspect, vegetation cover, soil properties, etc., which resulted in disparities in the warming rate or even a decrease in temperature in some places [7,27,41]. In general, the rate of warming of permafrost reached its peak value in the mid-2000s and slowed slightly in the following several years.…”

“…In other words, when the temperature of the permafrost approaches the critical point for degradation, the permafrost will consume a large amount of the thermal energy near the surface through the uplifting of the DZAA, which interrupts the transmission of the thermal energy downward. Thus, the melting of the upper limit of the permafrost will be strengthened, the depth of the active layer will be significantly increased, and the permafrost enters the substantive degradation stage [33,36,41].…”

Impact of climate changes over the extratropical land on permafrost dynamics under RCP scenarios in the 21st century as simulated by the IAP RAS climate model

“…The computations were carried out using the global climate model worked out at the Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM) referred to the class of models of intermediate complexity [31,33,40] and including the blocks of the transport of short-and long-wave radiation, convection, cloud and precipitation formation, and carbon (including methane) cycle as well as the detailed block of processes of heat and moisture transport in the soil [3,5,7,12,19].…”

The Permafrost Response on High-Temperature Surface Warming

“…Такие же значения характерны и для тренда температуры приповерхностных многолетнемерзлых грунтов (в верхних нескольких метрах) для Западной Сибири в конце XX -начале XXI вв. по данным наблюдений и результатам численного моделирования [4][5][6].…”