Temperature series analysis of the Hirfanli Dam Basin with the Mann-Kendall and Sequential Mann-Kendall tests

ZEYBEKOĞLU, Utku

doi:10.31127/tuje.1145716

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…Additionally, their study revealed that the temperature will rise in the coming years. Also, Zeybekoglu [18] studied the effects of climate change on the Hirfanlı Basin using the M-K test. For this purpose, they evaluated the annual station series between 1965 and 2017 and highlighted that temperatures in the basin have been increasing since the 1990s, which could lead to an increase in the water and meteorological parameters.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating Uncertainty of Future Predictions of Temperature and Precipitation in The Kerman Plain under Climate Change Impacts

Goodarzi,

Heydaripour,

Jamali

et al. 2023

Hydrology

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Climate change affects hydroclimatic variables, and assessing the uncertainty in future predictions is crucial. This study aims to explore variations in temperature and precipitation in the Kerman Plain under climate change impacts between 2023 and 2054. For this purpose, two climate models, MRI-ESM-2 and BCC-CSM2-MR, were used to simulate precipitation and temperature under two different scenarios. The Mann–Kendall test was employed to analyze the annual time series in the future period. The results indicated an increase in the average temperature of about 1.5 degrees Celsius based on both scenarios in the coming years. Furthermore, an average annual increase of 6.37 mm of precipitation was predicted under the SSP585 scenario. Meanwhile, under the SSP585 scenario, an increase was estimated using the MRI-ESM-2 model, and a decrease was predicted with the BCC-CSM2-MR model. The Mann–Kendall test revealed a downward trend in the BCC-CSM2-MR model under both scenarios and an upward trend in the MRI-ESM-2 model under both scenarios. The bootstrap method and the R-factor index were exploited in this study with a 95% confidence interval to estimate the uncertainty of the predicted data. The results demonstrated that the predicted precipitation is more uncertain than the temperature. Finally, it is postulated that the obtained results provide necessary information for water resource management under a changing climate in the study area.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating Uncertainty of Future Predictions of Temperature and Precipitation in The Kerman Plain under Climate Change Impacts

Goodarzi,

Heydaripour,

Jamali

et al. 2023

Hydrology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The S-MK test is used to determine if the series is increasing or decreasing with time. While the test displays the data graphically, it also determines the trend's starting point [49]. The t value denotes the test statistic, which was calculated by summing the n i values obtained by counting the smaller ones from the previous ranks for each rank (Equation ( 10)).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding Rainfall Distribution Characteristics over the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: A Comparison between Coastal and Inland Localities

Minh,

Lien,

Hong Ngoc

et al. 2024

Atmosphere

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This study examines the changing rainfall patterns in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) utilizing observational data spanning from 1978 to 2022. We employ the Mann–Kendall test, the sequential Mann–Kendall test, and innovative trend analysis to investigate trends in annual, wet, and dry season rainfall, as well as daily rainfall events. Our results show significant spatial variations. Ca Mau, a coastal province, consistently showed higher mean annual and seasonal rainfall compared to the further inland stations of Can Tho and Moc Hoa. Interestingly, Ca Mau experienced a notable decrease in annual rainfall. Conversely, Can Tho, showed an overall decrease in some months of the wet season and an increase in dry season rainfall. Furthermore, Moc Hoa showed an increase in the number of rainy days, especially during the dry season. Principal component analysis (PCA) further revealed strong correlations between annual rainfall and extreme weather events, particularly for Ca Mau, emphasizing the complex interplay of geographic and climatic factors within the region. Our findings offer insights for policymakers and planners, thus aiding the development of targeted interventions to manage water resources and prepare for changing climate conditions.

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In-depth Exploration of Temperature Trends in Morocco: Combining Traditional Methods of Mann Kendall with Innovative ITA and IPTA Approaches

Qadem,

Tayfur

2024

Pure Appl. Geophys.

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This study examines trends in minimum and maximum temperatures at various climate stations located in different regions of Morocco for a period of five decades (1970 to 2019). Mann–Kendall, Sen’s estimator, Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) and Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) were used in the analysis. The results show significant fluctuations, at different time scales, between minimum and maximum temperatures at all stations. In coastal areas, such as Rabat Sale, minimum temperatures fell during January and February while other months saw increases. Average minimum temperatures in Rabat Sale tend to fall by 0.5 °C. On the other hand, maximum temperatures in Rabat Sale rose by 0.2 °C. A decrease of 0.4 °C for Tmin and 1.6 °C for Tmax were observed in higher continental regions, such as Meknes. Other stations, such as Fez Sais (0.6 °C Tmin and 2.6 °C Tmax) and Taza (1.1 °C Tmin and 2.6 °C Tmax) showed an upward trend. Trends also vary, with notable increases in minimum and maximum temperatures, indicating different climatic dynamics according to altitude and locality. In particular, the ITA highlights a significant increase in annual maximum temperatures, with a P-value < 0.05 and trend slopes ranging from 0.0015 °C per year in Rabat Sale to 0.0076 °C per year in Taza. In addition, the IPTA results confirm diversity of upward and downward trends on monthly and seasonal scales, highlighting impact of geographical factors such as proximity to sea, topography, and continentality that contribute to formation of regional microclimates. The results highlight significant impact of climate change in Morocco.

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Temperature series analysis of the Hirfanli Dam Basin with the Mann-Kendall and Sequential Mann-Kendall tests

Cited by 4 publications

References 38 publications

Investigating Uncertainty of Future Predictions of Temperature and Precipitation in The Kerman Plain under Climate Change Impacts

Investigating Uncertainty of Future Predictions of Temperature and Precipitation in The Kerman Plain under Climate Change Impacts

Understanding Rainfall Distribution Characteristics over the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: A Comparison between Coastal and Inland Localities

In-depth Exploration of Temperature Trends in Morocco: Combining Traditional Methods of Mann Kendall with Innovative ITA and IPTA Approaches

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