Temperature sensitivity of pest reproductive numbers in age-structured PDE models, with a focus on the invasive spotted lanternfly

Lewkiewicz, Stephanie; Bona, Sebastiano De; Helmus, Matthew R.; Seibold, Benjamin

doi:10.1007/s00285-022-01800-9

Cited by 7 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…Several models have been developed to forecast the future spread and establishment potential of spotted lanternfly in the United States (Huron et al, 2022; Jones et al, 2022; Lewkiewicz et al, 2022; Wakie et al, 2020) and elsewhere (Jung et al, 2017; Maino et al, 2022). To ensure future models can be compared and combined through ensemble procedures, models should be based on the same historic and present spread data of spotted lanternfly.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

lydemapr: an R package to track the spread of the invasive Spotted Lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula, White 1845) (Hemiptera, Fulgoridae) in the United States

Bona

Barringer²,

Kurtz

et al. 2023

Preprint

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A crucial asset in the management of invasive species is the open-access sharing of data on the range of invaders and the progression of their spread. Such data should be current, comprehensive, consistent, and standardized, to support reproducible and comparable forecasting efforts among multiple researchers and managers. Here, we present the lydemapr R package containing spatiotemporal data and mapping functions to visualize the current spread of the spotted lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula, White 1841) in the Western Hemisphere. The spotted lanternfly is a forest and agricultural pest in the eastern Mid-Atlantic region of the U.S., where it was first discovered in 2014. As of 2022, it has been found in 12 states according to state and federal departments of agriculture. However, the lack of easily accessible, fine-scale data on its spread hampers research and management efforts. We obtained multiple memoranda-of-understanding from several agencies and citizen-science projects, gaining access to their internal data on spotted lanternfly point observations. We then cleaned, harmonized, anonymized, and combined the individual data sources into a single comprehensive dataset. The resulting dataset contains spatial data gridded at the 1 km2 resolution, with yearly information on the presence/absence of spotted lanternflies, establishment status, and population density across 658,392 observations. The lydemapr package will aid researchers, managers, and the public in their understanding, modeling, and managing of the spread of this invasive pest.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

lydemapr: an R package to track the spread of the invasive Spotted Lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula, White 1845) (Hemiptera, Fulgoridae) in the United States

Bona

Barringer²,

Kurtz

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…(1) is the set {( a, t ) : a ∈ (0, 1), t ∈ (0, 365)}, where t is measured in days. (We study dynamical behavior on the time scale of one Julian year assumed to have 365 days (Lewkiewicz et al, 2022). ) In Eqs.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…1d, egg-laying begins at motile age a = 0.85 (approximately 1616.4 degree days since hatching) and decays exponentially with a (Fox, 1993). Further details about the model formulation and calibration to existing SLF data can be found in (Lewkiewicz et al, 2022).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We performed a parameter sweep of Z across the natural domain of the parameters ( h, g ). For the deterministic parameters, we take ( h, g ) ∈ [0°C, 30°C] × [0°C, 25°C], as was conducted in (Lewkiewicz et al, 2022). For a conceptualization of the methodology, see Fig.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Invaded vineyards have seen reduced production, increased management costs and vine death (Urban and Leach, 2023). Owing to its risk of disrupting the global wine market (Huron et al, 2022), SLF has been the object of modeling seeking to predict establishment potential based on historical spatiotemporal climatic data (Huron et al, 2022; Jones et al, 2022, 2021; Lewkiewicz et al, 2022; Maino et al, 2021; Wakie et al, 2020). However, no modeling has been performed on its population dynamics, growth rate, and establishment potential accounting for temperature variability.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Quantifying population resistance to climatic variability: The invasive spotted lanternfly grape pest is buffered against temperature extremes in California

Lewkiewicz,

Seibold,

Helmus

2023

Preprint

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Temperature time series data are a composition of average trends and stochastic variability that together shape population dynamics. However, models of temperature-dependent species often overlook variability, focusing solely on growth rate under average conditions. When models omit variability, they can inaccurately predict the dynamics that underlie the establishment of invasive pests sensitive to temperature fluctuations. Here, we conduct a stochastic modeling study of spotted lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula), a univoltine grape pest, which has invaded grape growing regions of the eastern U.S. due to human transport leading to frequent establishment of populations in urban and suburban areas. As spotted lanternfly continues to be transported to new grape growing regions and climate change alters variability, it is vital to predict its establishment potential. Although it overwinters as diapausing eggs, experiments suggest that diapause is plastic and not necessary for survival. We developed a deterministic stage-age-structured partial differential equation model of diapausing and non-diapausing populations. We derived a new metric quantifying population resistance to climatic variability defined as the level of stochasticity that leads to negative growth compared to average conditions. We simulated growth rate and resistance to variability across a range of average temperature conditions and stochasticity. We then analyzed how variability and diapause interact with survival, fecundity, and development to affect population dynamics. Finally, we estimated establishment potential across all U.S. cities. Diapausing populations were typically more resistant than non-diapausing populations because diapause enhances overwintering egg survival during winter cold waves, while allowing accelerated development and increased fecundity during summer and fall heat waves. Establishment potential is especially underestimated in important grape growing regions of California if models of diapausing populations omit variability. By quantifying population resistance to climatic variability, we gain a fuller understanding of invasive species establishment in today’s stochastic and changing climate.

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Age structured partial differential equations model for Culex mosquito abundance

Frantz,

Godinez,

Martinez

et al. 2024

Ecological Modelling

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Temperature sensitivity of pest reproductive numbers in age-structured PDE models, with a focus on the invasive spotted lanternfly

Cited by 7 publications

References 50 publications

lydemapr: an R package to track the spread of the invasive Spotted Lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula, White 1845) (Hemiptera, Fulgoridae) in the United States

lydemapr: an R package to track the spread of the invasive Spotted Lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula, White 1845) (Hemiptera, Fulgoridae) in the United States

Quantifying population resistance to climatic variability: The invasive spotted lanternfly grape pest is buffered against temperature extremes in California

Age structured partial differential equations model for Culex mosquito abundance

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