Temperature Projections over the Indus River Basin of Pakistan Using Statistical Downscaling

Pomee, Muhammad Saleem; Hertig, Elke

doi:10.3390/atmos12020195

Cited by 11 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 90 publications

(177 reference statements)

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“…The Upper Indus Basin has average minimum and maximum temperatures of ~4 oC and 13 oC in the winter months and ~19 oC and 32 oC in the summer months. The Lower Indus basin has average minimum and maximum temperatures of ~10 oC and 24 oC in the winter months and ~25 oC and 36 oC in the summer months [ 44 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Persistence of poliovirus types 2 and 3 in waste-impacted water and sediment

et al. 2022

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Eradication of poliovirus (PV) is a global public health priority, and as clinical cases decrease, the role of environmental surveillance becomes more important. Persistence of PV and the environmental factors that influence it (such as temperature and sample type) are an important part of understanding and interpreting positive environmental surveillance samples. The objective of this study was to evaluate the persistence of poliovirus type 2 (PV2) and type 3 (PV3) in wastewater and sediment. Microcosms containing either 1) influent wastewater or 2) influent wastewater with a sediment matrix were seeded with either PV2 or PV3, and stored for up to 126 days at three temperatures (4°C, room temperature [RT], and 30°C). Active PV in the liquid of (1), and the sediment and liquid portions of (2) were sampled and quantified at up to 10 time points via plaque assay and RT-qPCR. A suite of 17 models were tested for best fit to characterize decay of PV2 and PV3 over time and determine the time points at which >90% (T90) and >99% (T99) reduction was reached. Linear models assessed the influence of experimental factors (matrix, temperature, virus type and method of detection) on the predicted T90 and T99 values. Results showed that when T90 was the dependent variable, virus type, matrix, and temperature significantly affected decay, and there was a clear interaction between the sediment matrix and temperature. When T99 was the dependent variable, only temperature and matrix type significantly influenced the decay metric. This study characterizes the persistence of both active and molecular PV2 and PV3 in relevant environmental conditions, and demonstrates that temperature and sediment both play important roles in PV viability. As eradication nears and clinical cases decrease, environmental surveillance and knowledge of PV persistence will play a key role in understanding the silent circulation in endemic countries.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Persistence of poliovirus types 2 and 3 in waste-impacted water and sediment

et al. 2022

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“…Many studies have been conducted on the use of downscaled GCMs based on various RCP scenarios for evaluating potential climate changes and their impact on UIB hydrology (Lutz et al, 2016;Ougahi et al, 2022;Pomee & Hertig, 2021). Few researchers have used RCMS for Upper Indus Basin including (Khan et al, 2015;Hassan et al, 2019 andShah et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Climate Projections using the LARS-WG6 downscaling model over Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan

Khan

Naeem

2023

Preprint

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This study investigates the projections of precipitation and temperature at local-scale in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) in Pakistan using six Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from CORDEX, under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). For twenty-four stations spread across the study area, the daily data from the six different RCMs for maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin) and precipitation(pr) at a spatial resolution of 0.44o was downscaled using Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator, version six (LARS-WG6). Investigations were made to predict changes in mean annual values of Tmax, Tmin and precipitation during two future periods, i.e., the mid-century (2041–2070) and end-century (2071–2100). Model results from statistical and graphical comparison validated that the LARS-WG6 is capable of simulating both the temperature and the precipitation in the UIB. Each of the six RCMs and their ensemble revealed a continuous increased temperature projections in the basin; nevertheless, there is variation in projected magnitude across RCMs and between RCPs. In general, the rise in average Tmax and Tmin was found to be greater under RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5 possibly due to unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). The precipitation projections follow nonuniform trend. i.e., not all RCMs agree whether the precipitation will increase or decrease in the basin and no orderly variations were detected during any of the future time periods under any RCP. However. an overall increase in precipitation is projected by the ensemble of RCMS.

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