2018
DOI: 10.1086/696096
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Temperature Drives Epidemics in a Zooplankton-Fungus Disease System: A Trait-Driven Approach Points to Transmission via Host Foraging

Abstract: Climatic warming will likely have idiosyncratic impacts on infectious diseases, causing some to increase while others decrease or shift geographically. A mechanistic framework could better predict these different temperature-disease outcomes. However, such a framework remains challenging to develop, due to the nonlinear and (sometimes) opposing thermal responses of different host and parasite traits and due to the difficulty of validating model predictions with observations and experiments. We address these ch… Show more

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Cited by 62 publications
(100 citation statements)
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References 58 publications
(86 reference statements)
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“…Finally, simulations demonstrate that these temperature‐driven changes in transmission rate can explain why epidemics become larger when they start warmer (Shocket et al. ) and wane as lakes cool. The population model predicts that most spores are reared recently (i.e., rearing temperature ≈ exposure/infection temperature) because lakes cool gradually as spores turn over quickly.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…Finally, simulations demonstrate that these temperature‐driven changes in transmission rate can explain why epidemics become larger when they start warmer (Shocket et al. ) and wane as lakes cool. The population model predicts that most spores are reared recently (i.e., rearing temperature ≈ exposure/infection temperature) because lakes cool gradually as spores turn over quickly.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…, Shocket et al. ). Therefore, any factor inhibiting the start of epidemics, all else equal, should make them smaller via thermal effects describe here.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
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