Temperature-dependent development of the Argentine ant,<i>Linepithema humile</i>(Mayr) (Hymenoptera: Formicidae): a degree-day model with implications for range limits in New Zealand.

Hartley, Stephen; Lester, Philip J.

doi:10.1080/00779962.2003.9722113

Cited by 56 publications

(72 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…although the approach is different in each study they show results broadly similar to ours: New Zealand is too cold for A. gracilipes (Lester 2005), marginal for S. invicta in northern New Zealand (Morrison et al 2004;Lester 2005;Sutherst & Maywald 2005), and suitable for L. humile, particularly in the North island (Harris 2002;Hartley & Lester 2003;Hartley et al 2006). a soilbased temperature model predicted several southerly locations suitable for L. humile that were considered too cold when based on air temperature (Hartley & Lester 2003).…”

Section: Comparisons To Other Approachessupporting

confidence: 64%

“…The temperature of the soil rather than of the air may be the key variable determining the likelihood of establishment, as many of these species typically nest at ground level or just below the surface (Hartley & Lester 2003). Without access to international data on soil temperatures, we used MaT as a surrogate for soil temperature.…”

Section: Climate Parameters Limiting Spreadmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Relative risk of invasive ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) establishing in New Zealand

Harris

Barker

2007

New Zealand Journal of Zoology

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Human-assisted spread of species poses a major challenge to border security agencies. Ideally, limited resources need to be targeted at species posing the most risk. Climate matching is an important component of assessing risk but often little or no biological information is available to enable detailed modelling. To assess if distribution records alone provide useful establishment predictions we compare the climate in New Zealand and its outlying islands to that found in the current native and introduced ranges of 12 tramp ant species, three of which are already established in New Zealand, using the climate module of BIOSECURE, a risk assessment tool. Eleven species showed a similar general pattern, with mean annual temperature being the climatic variable with the least overlap between the estimated realised niche and the predicted New Zealand niche. The twelfth species, of temperate origin, is less restricted by temperature, but much of New Zealand may have too high a rainfall. The present and future threats posed by tramp ants are discussed in relation to climate limitations.

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Section: Comparisons To Other Approachessupporting

confidence: 64%

Section: Climate Parameters Limiting Spreadmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relative risk of invasive ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) establishing in New Zealand

Harris

Barker

2007

New Zealand Journal of Zoology

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“…Worldwide, L. humile has impacted native ant faunas, leading to changes in arthropod communities, ant-vertebrate interactions, and ant-plant relationships, as well as economic effects, such as food contamination and damage to infrastructure (Bond & Slingsby 1984;Cole et al 1992;Human & Gordon 1996;Suarez et al 1998Suarez et al , 2000Vega & Rust 2001;Holway et al 2002a;Gómez & Oliveras 2003;Touyama et al 2003). Despite the numerous studies of L. humile, little research has focused on its ecological and geographical distribution at broad spatial scales (Tsutsui et al 2000(Tsutsui et al , 2001Suarez et al 2001;Hartley & Lester 2003;Wild 2004), and no study has yet assessed the probable changes in its global distributional potential associated with global climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geographical potential of Argentine ants ( Linepithema humile Mayr) in the face of global climate change

Roura‐Pascual

Suarez

Gómez

et al. 2004

Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B

182

170

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Determining the spread and potential geographical distribution of invasive species is integral to making invasion biology a predictive science. We assembled a dataset of over 1000 occurrences of the Argentine ant (Linepithema humile), one of the world's worst invasive alien species. Native to central South America, Argentine ants are now found in many Mediterranean and subtropical climates around the world. We used this dataset to assess the species' potential geographical and ecological distribution, and to examine changes in its distributional potential associated with global climate change, using techniques for ecological niche modelling. Models developed were highly predictive of the species' overall range, including both the native distributional area and invaded areas worldwide. Despite its already widespread occurrence, L. humile has potential for further spread, with tropical coastal Africa and southeast Asia apparently vulnerable to invasion. Projecting ecological niche models onto four general circulation model scenarios of future (2050s) climates provided scenarios of the species' potential for distributional expansion with warming climates: generally, the species was predicted to retract its range in tropical regions, but to expand at higher latitude areas.

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“…In New Zealand, RES would likely experience cool incubation temperatures, which may produce only male hatchlings from successful nests. As it can be difficult to infer soil temperatures from air temperature data (Hartley & Lester, 2003), and given that the metabolic activity of developing eggs may raise the surrounding soil temperature (Burger, 1976), further research on potential nest temperatures in New Zealand is required. Previous attempts to model areas of climatic suitability for RES at a regional scale have included additional variables such as amount of solar radiation and 'human footprint', a measure of human influence on the global surface (Ficetola et al, 2009).…”

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confidence: 99%

Minimizing false‐negatives when predicting the potential distribution of an invasive species: a bioclimatic envelope for the red‐eared slider at global and regional scales

Kikillus

Hare

Hartley

2010

Animal Conservation

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Invasive species threaten biodiversity; hence, predicting where they may establish is vital for conservation. Our aim is to provide a robust predictive model for an invasive species suitable for managers acting at both global and regional scales. Specifically, we investigate one of the world's worst invasive species [the red-eared slider turtle (RES) Trachemys scripta elegans] and one of the world's biodiversity hotspots (New Zealand) as our representative systems. We used climate data and location records to define a bioclimatic envelope for the species. Multimodel inference was used to predict areas suitable for RES establishment, weighting in favour of models with low false-negative and high true-positive rates in predictive cross-validation tests. Our performance criterion was the partial area under the curve of a receiver operating characteristic plot where sensitivity exceeded 0.95. We generated both conservative (best-case scenario) and liberal (worst-case scenario) predictions, based on different levels of information about breeding potential. All predictions were expressed on a standard scale of suitability relative to existing known distribution. Globally, the best climate matches for RES outside of their native range in North America include south-east Asia, and parts of Europe, areas where RES have already established. The best available site in New Zealand is considered climatically more suitable than 16% of global sites where RES have bred successfully. While RES can survive in several areas throughout New Zealand, the potential to establish a self-sustaining (i.e. breeding) population appears restricted to the upper areas of the north island where the mean daily temperatures in the hottest month exceed 18 1C. The methods developed here were designed to reduce false-negative predictions as that represents a precautionary approach for species that pose a biosecurity risk. They could readily be adapted, however, to reduce false-positives when predicting areas suitable for translocation of rare and endangered species.

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Temperature-dependent development of the Argentine ant,Linepithema humile(Mayr) (Hymenoptera: Formicidae): a degree-day model with implications for range limits in New Zealand.

Cited by 56 publications

References 26 publications

Relative risk of invasive ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) establishing in New Zealand

Relative risk of invasive ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) establishing in New Zealand

Geographical potential of Argentine ants ( Linepithema humile Mayr) in the face of global climate change

Minimizing false‐negatives when predicting the potential distribution of an invasive species: a bioclimatic envelope for the red‐eared slider at global and regional scales

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