Temperature Decreases Spread Parameters of the New Covid-19 Case Dynamics

Demongeot, Jacques; Flet-Berliac, Yannis; Seligmann, Hervé

doi:10.3390/biology9050094

Cited by 137 publications

(170 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…In accordance with the present results, a recent study has documented that temperature decreases spread parameters of the new COVID-19 case dynamics [20]. Chan et al previously supported that virus viability was rapidly lost at higher temperatures (e.g., 38 °C) [21].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

High temperature slows coronavirus disease 2019 transmission rate: A within and among country analysis

Kotsiou

Kotsios

Lampropoulos

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background: The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global issue. The relationships between temperature and incidence, transmission, or survival of many enveloped coronaviruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) have been previously widely investigated. However, there has been a lively debate in the literature over whether higher temperatures modulate coronaviruses’ infectivity and spreading, which sets a fertile ground for research on a global scale. In this study, we aimed to investigate the relationship between day-to-day temperature variability and daily COVID-19 incidence rate, as well as the time is taken to reach the total number of 200 confirmed COVID-19 cases within the worst-hit countries by the pandemic. Methods: A within and among countries analysis of the relationship between daily fluctuations in the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases and temperature for the period starting from 31st December 2019 to 29th March 2020, was conducted. The 46 worst-hit countries by the pandemic were included in the analysis.Results: What emerges from our results is that daily new COVID-19 cases were negatively correlated with daily temperature variation. Moreover, higher temperatures were positively correlated with a longer time to reach a standard number of confirmed COVID-19 cases within countries. Notably, countries with daily average temperatures below 20°C had a faster transmission rate than countries with higher daily average temperatures. Conclusions: Our study provides further insights into the hypothesis that there is an association between temperature and rate of COVID-19 spread within a country.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

High temperature slows coronavirus disease 2019 transmission rate: A within and among country analysis

Kotsiou

Kotsios

Lampropoulos

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Our multivariate model, adjusted on spatial heterogeneity, did not identify any significant association between in-hospital COVID-19 incidence and climate. This contrasts with previous reports (7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14), and may be explained by our choice to use climate characteristics rather than meteorological factors, such as temperature, humidity or rainfall. But this matches with the current summery explosion of the pandemic across the United States of America, Southern…”

Section: Fig 3 -Maps Of (A) Incidence (B) Mortality and (C) Lethalicontrasting

confidence: 80%

“…Spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has exhibited important heterogeneity between countries and regions (1,2). Spatial differences between incidence and mortality rates have been associated with factors as various as: arrival time of the SARS-CoV-2 virus (3), population age structure (4), urban development and population density (5), economic level (5), health system (6), climatic and meteorological factors (7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)(15), anti-contagion policies and practices (16)(17)(18)(19).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors associated with the spatial heterogeneity of COVID-19 in France: a nationwide ecological study

Gaudart

Landier

Huiart

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Like in many countries and regions, spread of the COVID 19 pandemic has exhibited important spatial heterogeneity across France, one of the most affected countries so far. To better understand factors associated with incidence, mortality and lethality heterogeneity across the 96 administrative departments of metropolitan France, we thus conducted a geoepidemiological analysis based on publicly available data, using hierarchical ascendant classification (HAC) on principal component analysis (PCA) of multidimensional variables, and multivariate analyses with generalized additive models (GAM). Our results confirm a marked spatial heterogeneity of in-hospital COVID 19 incidence and mortality, following the North East / South West diffusion of the epidemic. The delay elapsed between the first COVID-19 associated death and the onset of the national lockdown on March 17th, 2020, appeared positively associated with in-hospital incidence, mortality and lethality. Mortality was also strongly associated with incidence. Mortality and lethality rates were significantly higher in departments with older population, but they were not significantly associated with the number of intensive-care beds available in 2018. We did not find any significant association between incidence, mortality or lethality rates and incidence of new chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine dispensations in pharmacies either, nor between COVID 19 incidence and climate, nor between economic indicators and in-hospital COVID 19 incidence or mortality. This ecological study highlights the impact of population age structure, epidemic spread and transmission mitigation policies in COVID-19 morbidity or mortality heterogeneity.

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“…These outcomes can be considered with caution. Previous studies indicate that humidity affects the infection rates of COVID-19 outbreak (Oliveiros et al 2020 ; Wu et al 2020 ; Demongeot et al 2020 ; Wang et al 2020 ). It is unknown whether increases in seasonal temperatures will decrease the rate, which deserves further investigation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Are meteorological factors enhancing COVID-19 transmission in Bangladesh? Novel findings from a compound Poisson generalized linear modeling approach

Islam

Hasanuzzaman

Shammi

et al. 2020

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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Novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) causing COVID-19 disease has arisen to be a pandemic. Since there is a close association between other viral infection cases by epidemics and environmental factors, this study intends to unveil meteorological effects on the outbreak of COVID-19 across eight divisions of Bangladesh from March to April 2020. A compound Poisson generalized linear modeling (CPGLM), along with a Monte-Carlo method and random forest (RF) model, was employed to explore how meteorological factors affecting the COVID-19 transmission in Bangladesh. Results showed that subtropical climate (mean temperature about 26.6 °C, mean relative humidity (MRH) 64%, and rainfall approximately 3 mm) enhanced COVD-19 onset. The CPGLM model revealed that every 1 mm increase in rainfall elevated by 30.99% (95% CI 77.18%, − 15.20%) COVID-19 cases, while an increase of 1 °C of diurnal temperature (TDN) declined the confirmed cases by − 14.2% (95% CI 9.73%, − 38.13%) on the lag 1 and lag 2, respectively. In addition, NRH and MRH had the highest increase (17.98% (95% CI 22.5%, 13.42%) and 19.92% (95% CI: 25.71%, 14.13%)) of COVID-19 cased in lag 4. The results of the RF model indicated that TDN and AH (absolute humidity) influence the COVID-19 cases most. In the Dhaka division, MRH is the most vital meteorological factor that affects COVID-19 deaths. This study indicates the humidity and rainfall are crucial factors affecting the COVID-19 case, which is contrary to many previous studies in other countries. These outcomes can have policy formulation for the suppression of the COVID-19 outbreak in Bangladesh.

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Temperature Decreases Spread Parameters of the New Covid-19 Case Dynamics

Cited by 137 publications

References 32 publications

High temperature slows coronavirus disease 2019 transmission rate: A within and among country analysis

High temperature slows coronavirus disease 2019 transmission rate: A within and among country analysis

Factors associated with the spatial heterogeneity of COVID-19 in France: a nationwide ecological study

Are meteorological factors enhancing COVID-19 transmission in Bangladesh? Novel findings from a compound Poisson generalized linear modeling approach

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