Temperature changes over the past 2000 yr in China and comparison with the Northern Hemisphere

Abstract

We use principal component regression and partial least squares regression to separately reconstruct a composite series of temperature variations in China, and associated uncertainties, at a decadal resolution over the past 2000 yr. The reconstruction is developed using proxy temperature data with relatively high confidence levels from five regions across China, and using a temperature series from observations by the Chinese Meteorological Administration, covering the period from 1871 to 2000. Relative to the 1851–1950 climatology, our two reconstructions show four warm intervals during AD 1–AD 200, AD 551–AD 760, AD 951–AD 1320, and after AD 1921, and four cold intervals during AD 201–AD 350, AD 441–AD 530, AD 781–AD 950, and AD 1321–AD 1920. The temperatures during AD 981–AD 1100 and AD 1201–AD 1270 are comparable to those of the Present Warm Period, but have an uncertainty of ±0.28 °C to ±0.42 °C at the 95% confidence interval. Temperature variations over China are typically in phase with those of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) after 1000, a period which covers the Medieval Climate Anomaly, the Little Ice Age, and the Present Warm Period. In contrast, a warm period in China during AD 541–AD 740 is not obviously seen in the NH

Macro-Economic Cycles Related to Climate change in Dynastic China

“…TempE.G should be very suitable for the study of climatic impacts on the agrarian economy in eastern China. However, the resolution of data for TempE.G during the study period is only 30 yr, and TempE.G can explain 71% of the variance of TempC.G (with a resolution of 10 yr) (Ge et al, 2013). In contrast, TempC.G covers the entire region of China.…”

“…Before the Tang Dynasty, two centennial cooling episodes (the first was around 460-250 BC (Ge, 2011); the second was around AD 201-530 (Ge et al, 2013)) each coincided well with a downturn of economy lasting several centuries during the Warring States Period (approximately 476-220 BC) (Fu, 1981), and the period from the end of the Eastern Han to the Northern/Southern Dynasties (approximately AD 180-580). Both of these were followed by a short resilient α-phase consisting of a short-duration dynasty.…”

“…This illustrates the resilience of the overall system. (Gunderson and Holling, 2001); here, they also refer to the dynasties identified in the second row of the figure; (2) the colored bar indicates centennial-scale warm/cold periods in China (Ge et al, 2013); (3) The r-phase (exploitation) represented a slow accumulation of wealth, and the uptrend of economic development. Stimulus from short-term climate deterioration might trigger a relatively positive response in human agency under a situation of functional institution and fiscal surplus (Wei et al, 2014).…”

“…The southern invasion of the Yuan, together with the less sophisticated social management system and frequent foreign military, already caused great historical retrogression (Fu, 1981). A large cooling shift from the end of the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age occurred around the 14th century AD (Ge et al, 2013), when nationwide agricultural depression accompanied the rise of drought/flood disasters across the country after the reign of Kublai Khan (AD 1260-1294) (Fan and Cai, 1994). This major climatic shift, among other things like fiscal crisis, brought the imperial economy from a K-phase during the Song period into a rapid releasing phase (Ω) during the late Yuan period.…”

A preliminary analysis of economic fluctuations and climate changes in China from BC 220 to AD 1910

“…There are two representative decadal temperature anomaly series that cover all of China during the period AD 1-2000 (Yang et al 2002;Ge et al 2013). However, we only adopted the more recent series in this study.…”