Temperature and precipitation effects on breeding productivity of some passerines — a multivariate analysis of constant effort mist-netting data

Gyurácz, József; Bánhidi, Péter; Góczán, József; Illéš, Peter; Kalmár, Sándor; Lukács, Zoltán; Németh, Csaba; Varga, László

doi:10.1515/biolog-2016-0149

Cited by 9 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…Ambient temperature and precipitation do not only affect survival of nestlings, they can have a complex interacting impact on different age classes, e.g. recruitment of fledglings (Öberg et al , Gyurácz et al ) or parental survival (Öberg et al ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Heavy and persistent rainfall leads to brood reduction and nest failure in a passerine bird

Schöll

Hille

2020

Journal of Avian Biology

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The process of reproduction is a sensitive period for bird offspring, since they are exposed to environmental conditions for several weeks. Within the long reproductive period, adult birds do not only have to maintain their own body condition, they also have to ensure nutritional needs of their nestlings. In the worst case, if weather conditions are very harsh, breeding is not successful and fails. This suggests that weather conditions might be an important driver of breeding success. Here, we studied the effect of weather conditions (temperature and precipitation) on the survival of 350 nests of great tits Parus major during nestling period in six years (2010–2015). We used traditional generalized linear mixed model (binomial response variable) and a dedicated survival‐analysis program (MARK) to analyze the data. The two approaches allowed us to highlight and compare the effect of weather conditions on a fine (nestling survival) and coarse (nest fate) scale. Both methods showed that precipitation explained most of the variation in individual nestling and overall nest survival during the 15‐day nestling period. Heavy and persistent rainfall did not only lead to brood reduction, it ultimately also led to losses of the entire brood. Likely causes were the negative effects of precipitation on thermoregulation, food availability and predation risk. However, while reduced food availability most likely might have led to brood reduction through selective individual nestling death, predation might have resulted in total nest failures.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Heavy and persistent rainfall leads to brood reduction and nest failure in a passerine bird

Schöll

Hille

2020

Journal of Avian Biology

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“…Our annual captures also suggest stabile populations in this western Hungarian study site (Tömörd) for both tit species. The results of an earlier study showed that high temperatures in the breeding season was the key determinant of increased annual captures of first-year birds of some short-distance migrants (Gyurácz et al 2016). The increasing and stable populations of forest tit species is most likely due to the expanding forested area of Hungary.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…As part of a long-term monitoring study to understand passerines' population dynamics and migration (Gyurácz & Bánhidi 2008, Lukács et al 2015), here we report annual capture-recapture data, and estimate age-and sex-specific survival for one Palearctic and one European cavity-nesting and partial-migrant species of tits: Blue Tit Cyanistes caeruleus and Great Tit Parus major breed and migrate sympatrically in western Hungary (Gyurácz et al 2017). The European breeding populations of Great Tit and Blue Tit appear to have increased moderately in recent decades (PECBMS 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Annual captures and low apparent survival rates in two tit species in western Hungary

Gyurácz

Bánhidi²,

Góczán³

et al. 2022

Ornis Hungarica

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Adult and juvenile survival are important factors affecting the population dynamics of small passerines. Understanding variation in the population dynamics and survival rates is critical for ecological studies and nature conservation. The aim of this study was to investigate the annual capture-recapture, apparent survival and capture probabilities of the Blue Tit Cyanistes caeruleus and the Great Tit Parus major occurring in western Hungary. Data from 8,628 Blue Tits and 7,727 Great Tits came from a constant-effort ringing scheme, using three ringing periods, spanning 24 years (1998 to 2021). The annual captures did not show a significant linear trend from 1998 to 2021 in the study site for both tit species. The temporal variation of annual captures and the annual capture-recapture proportions of different ages and sexes of the tit species were similar. This indicated that the migration strategies of these two partial migrant species did not differ significantly. According to the best standard Cormack-Jolly-Seber model, apparent survival of first-year birds was lower than that for adults. The CJS model selection for the dataset indicated that the time and sex had no effect on apparent survival probabilities for both tit species. Capture probability in the juvenile groups was not significantly higher than that in the adult groups for both species.

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“…In this study, we calibrated individual-based models (IBMs) that explictly include crucial processes such as density-dependence and climatic impacts on demographic rates [9]. To describe the climate, we used precipitation in addition to temperature as predictive variables [49]. When comparing our spatiotemporal predictions against observations, our models achieved acceptable to excellent predictive accuracy, with the highest performance for the alpine accentor.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Demography-environment relationships improve mechanistic understanding of range dynamics under climate change

Malchow

Härtig

Reeg

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Species responses to climate change are widely detected as range and abundance changes. To better explain and predict them, we need a mechanistic understanding of how the underlying demographic processes are shaped by climatic conditions. We built spatially-explicit, process-based models for eight Swiss breeding bird populations. They jointly consider dispersal, population dynamics and the climate-dependence of three demographic processes - juvenile survival, adult survival and fecundity. The models were calibrated to two-decade abundance time-series in a Bayesian framework. We assessed goodness-of-fit and discriminatory power of the models with different metrics, indicating fair to excellent model fit. The most influential climatic predictors for population performance were the mean breeding-season temperature and the total winter precipitation. Maps of overall growth rate highlighted demographically suitable areas. Further, benefits from contemporary climate change were detected for typical mountain birds, whereas lowland birds were adversely affected. Embedding generic process-based models in a solid statistical framework improves our mechanistic understanding of range dynamics and allows disentangling the underlying abiotic and biotic processes. For future research, we advocate a stronger integration of experimental and empirical measurements and more detailed predictors in order to generate precise insights into the processes by which climate affects populations.

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Temperature and precipitation effects on breeding productivity of some passerines — a multivariate analysis of constant effort mist-netting data

Cited by 9 publications

References 49 publications

Heavy and persistent rainfall leads to brood reduction and nest failure in a passerine bird

Heavy and persistent rainfall leads to brood reduction and nest failure in a passerine bird

Annual captures and low apparent survival rates in two tit species in western Hungary

Demography-environment relationships improve mechanistic understanding of range dynamics under climate change

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