Temperature and Decisions: Evidence from 207,000 Court Cases

Abstract

We analyze the impact of outdoor temperature on high-stakes decisions (immigration adjudications) made by professional decision-makers (US immigration judges). In our preferred specification, which includes spatial, temporal, and judge fixed effects, and controls for various potential confounders, a 10°F degree increase in case-day temperature reduces decisions favorable to the applicant by 6.55 percent. This is despite judgements being made indoors, “protected ” by climate control. Results are consistent with established links from temperature to mood and risk appetite and have important implications for evaluating the influence of climate on “cognitive output.” (JEL K37, K41, Q54)

Terrorism, immigration and asylum approval

“…Unfortunately, the 100 decision per year threshold in the TRAC data leaves 30 of the 262 judges missing. We used internet searches, relying on DOJ and other gov-10 Data retrieved from Heyes and Saberian (2019). 11 Data about the share of the population that is Muslim in each country is drawn from 2010 estimates by the Pew Research Center's Forum on Religion and Public Life and we define a country as Muslim-majority if greater than 50% of their population is Muslim.…”

“…X i is a vector of case specific variables including whether or not the individual is detained at the time of the hearing, has legal representation, and is filling affirmatively or defensively. temperature ct measures the mean temperature from 6am to 4pm in city c on date t and is included following Heyes and Saberian (2019). λ j , τ c , ω m , and ρ cm are judge, city, month, and city-month fixed effects, respectively.…”

“…Danziger et al (2011)). Heyes and Saberian (2019) examine the impact of pollution and temperature on immigration judge asylum decisions, finding that extreme temperature results in lower likelihood of asylum. Philippe and Ouss (2018) explore the impact of crime on jury decision making in France and conclude that new coverage of unrelated crimes increases sentence length.…”

Judicial analytics and the great transformation of American Law

“…These features are motivated by prior research. For example, Chen (2017) and Heyes and Saberian (2018) also report an effect of temperature and Ramji-Nogales et al (2007) reports on "refugee roulette", where the randomly assigned judge has a strong effect on the final decision.…”

Bad News From the Front and From Above: Bombing Raids, Military Fatalities and the Death Penalty in Nazi Germany

“…This includes not only the threat of terrorism (Shayo and Zussman ), but also other events influencing the judge's emotional response at the time of decision‐making. While most previous studies have looked at emotional responses to specific, arguably idiosyncratic, events, such as college football (Eren and Mocan ), the timing of meal breaks (Danziger, Levav, and Avnaim‐Pesso ) or the weather (Heyes and Saberian ), our focus is on the effects of a prolonged event, external to the courtroom, that continued over several years and adversely affected the lives of millions of people.…”