Teleconnections between Bangladesh Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Sea Surface Temperature in the Indian Ocean

Rahman, Md. Mizanur; Rafiuddin, M.; Alam, Md. Mahbub

doi:10.1260/1759-3131.4.4.231

Cited by 7 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 16 publications

(17 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…For the positive IOD phase, a positive precipitation anomaly was found only in a narrow area near Cox's Bazar (Figure 12d-f). Such a weak response of precipitation to remote SST has been noted by previous studies [56,57,65]. Our composite analysis indicated that the passage of cyclones with a low SLP and high meridional wind enhances the SLA (Figure 7g).…”

Section: Influence Of Remote and Local Sstsupporting

confidence: 81%

“…It was found that the ESLs were influenced by the high precipitation during the monsoon season. The extreme sea levels intensify coastal inundation and cause coastal floods with high precipitation during monsoons [8,32,57,59,65]. Therefore, the attempt of this study relating to predictions of ESL has implications for the reduction of coastal hazards.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Influence of Terrestrial Precipitation on the Variability of Extreme Sea Levels along the Coast of Bangladesh

Islam

Sato

2021

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The coastal area of Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to extreme sea levels because of high population exposure in the low-lying deltaic coast. Since the area lies in the monsoon region, abundant precipitation and the resultant increase in river discharge have raised a flood risk for the coastal area. Although the effects of atmospheric forces have been investigated intensively, the influence of precipitation on extreme sea levels in this area remains unknown. In this study, the influence of precipitation on extreme sea levels for three different stations were investigated by multivariate regression using the meteorological drivers of precipitation, sea level pressure, and wind. The prediction of sea levels considering precipitation effects outperformed predictions without precipitation. The benefit of incorporating precipitation was greater at Cox’s Bazar than at Charchanga and Khepupara, reflecting the hilly landscape at Cox’s Bazar. The improved prediction skill was mainly confirmed during the monsoon season, when strong precipitation events occur. It was also revealed that the precipitation over the Bangladesh area is insensitive to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole mode. The precipitation over northern Bangladesh tended to be high in the year of a high sea surface temperature over the Bay of Bengal, which may have contributed to the variation in sea level. The findings suggest that the effect of precipitation plays an essential role in enhancing sea levels during many extreme events. Therefore, incorporating the effect of terrestrial precipitation is essential for the better prediction of extreme sea levels, which helps coastal management and reduction of hazards.

show abstract

Section: Influence Of Remote and Local Sstsupporting

confidence: 81%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of Terrestrial Precipitation on the Variability of Extreme Sea Levels along the Coast of Bangladesh

Islam

Sato

2021

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In observation, the ENSO-rainfall teleconnection is found to be positive although it is not statistically significant. Rahman et al (2013b) found the similar positive ENSO-rainfall teleconnection using observations from 1985 to 2008. In contrast, the ENSO-rainfall teleconnections in most of the GCMs indicate a strongly negative relationship, indicating that GCMs are unable to reproduce the observed teleconnections satisfactorily, even of an opposite sign.…”

Section: Skill Of Uncalibrated Gcm Predictionssupporting

confidence: 69%

“…ARIMA models have been used to predict rainfall with lead times of up to 12 months (Mahmud et al, 2017), but the lack of statistical significance of year‐to‐year autocorrelation can lead to limited forecasting skills (Dahale & Singh, 1993). A more widely‐used approach has been the use of empirical relationships between observed BSMR and predictors such as sea‐surface temperature, surface air temperature and pressure gradients (Hossain et al, 2019; Rahman et al, 2013b). For instance, the prediction of the monthly and seasonal frequency of rainy days and heavy rainfall events have been attempted using SST as a predictor (Mannan et al, 2015), and skill is higher than for the monsoon seasonal total amount, consistent with results from other parts of the world (Robertson et al, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Calibrated multi‐model ensemble seasonal prediction of Bangladesh summer monsoon rainfall

Acharya,

Montes,

Hassan

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Bangladesh summer monsoon rainfall (BSMR), typically from June through September (JJAS), represents the main source of water for multiple sectors. However, its high spatial and interannual variability makes the seasonal prediction of BSMR crucial for building resilience to natural disasters and for food security in a climate‐risk‐prone country. This study describes the development and implementation of an objective system for the seasonal forecasting of BSMR, recently adopted by the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD). The approach is based on the use of a calibrated multi‐model ensemble (CMME) of seven state‐of‐the‐art general circulation models (GCMs) from the North American Multi‐Model Ensemble project. The lead‐1 (initial conditions of May for forecasting JJAS total rainfall) hindcasts (spanning 1982–2010) and forecasts (spanning 2011–2018) of seasonal total rainfall for the JJAS season from these seven GCMs were used. A canonical correlation analysis (CCA) regression is used to calibrate the raw GCMs outputs against observations, which are then combined with equal weight to generate final CMME predictions. Results show, compared to individual calibrated GCMs and uncalibrated MME, that the CCA‐based calibration generates significant improvements over individual raw GCM in terms of the magnitude of systematic errors, Spearman's correlation coefficients, and generalised discrimination scores over most of Bangladesh areas, especially in the northern part of the country. Since October 2019, the BMD has been issuing real‐time seasonal rainfall forecasts using this new forecast system.

show abstract

“…The temperature gradient between the Indian Ocean and Tibetan Plateau plays a critical role in the inter-annual variability of the South Asian monsoon. All these factors regulate the regional climatic difference over Bangladesh [9][10][11].…”

Section: General Characteristics Of Bangladesh Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Geospatial Modeling for Spatial Analysis of Climatic Elements: In search of Climatic Classification Map for Bangladesh

Chowdhury¹

2021

IJRASET

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The present study attempts to develop a scientific climatic classification map of Bangladesh using the daily climatic data of rainfall, relative humidity, mean sea level pressure and surface wind speed of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department. There are only two climate classification maps (Koppen-Geiger and Rashid) available for Bangladesh. Rashid relies on a single variable to identically represent a climate zones. In Koppen-Geiger map two weather variables namely Rainfall and Temperature were employed. The Geostatistical tool of ArcMap 10.5 was employed to produce a spatial dataset of the climate classes. In the present climatic classification map, there were three major classes of Dry, Temperate and Humid Temperate and seven sub-classes of Extreme Dry, Dry Low Humid, Temperate with Humidity, Moist Temperate, High Humid and Moisture, Humid Temperate and High Wind Temperate identified. Low annual value of the selected variables found in western and north western part of the country where higher values were found for the south and southeastern part of the country. This research will help to understand the climatic zones and spatial pattern of climatic variables. This will also helpful for future climate, climate risk, hydrological and agricultural research of the country. Keywords: Bangladesh; Climate Variables; Geo-Statistics; Climate Classification; Climate Sub-classes

show abstract

Teleconnections between Bangladesh Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Sea Surface Temperature in the Indian Ocean

Cited by 7 publications

References 16 publications

Influence of Terrestrial Precipitation on the Variability of Extreme Sea Levels along the Coast of Bangladesh

Influence of Terrestrial Precipitation on the Variability of Extreme Sea Levels along the Coast of Bangladesh

Calibrated multi‐model ensemble seasonal prediction of Bangladesh summer monsoon rainfall

Geospatial Modeling for Spatial Analysis of Climatic Elements: In search of Climatic Classification Map for Bangladesh

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About