Técnica de calibração para modelagem da bacia hidrográfica do Rio São Francisco, Brasil, utilizando o SWAT

Abstract

O Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) é um modelo hidrossedimentológico que tem como foco principal avaliar os impactos das modificações no uso do solo sobre a qualidade e quantidade de água em bacias hidrográficas. Para que essas avaliações sejam adequadas, considerando a representatividade dos processos simulados pelo modelo, faz-se necessário a realização do procedimento de calibração. Muitos modeladores encontram grande desafio nesta etapa imprescindível da modelagem. Há uma grande variedade de parâmetros a serem considerados, diferentes algoritmos, bem como diferentes funções objetivas. Outro aspecto a ser destacado é o fato de que o tempo de processamento pode ser alto, quando se considera bacias hidrográficas representativas, como é o caso da bacia hidrográfica do Rio São Francisco, Brasil (639.219km²). Para atender a demanda de criação de um modelo de gestão integrada de águas para países BIS (Brasil, Índia e África do Sul) sob cenários de mudanças climáticas, a bacia do São Francisco foi calibrada. Esta nota científica objetiva fornecer uma visão do procedimento de calibração e confiabilidade do modelo, utilizando dados de vazão em tempo mensal no período de 1961 a 2016 para a bacia do São Francisco. O modelo SWAT calibrado para a bacia do Rio São Francisco pode ser utilizado para análises de cenários de mudanças climáticas e seus impactos sobre a disponibilidade hídrica da bacia, subsidiando assim, a tomada de decisão sobre os recursos hídricos, e a criação do modelo de gestão integrada com os demais países do BIS.Palavras-chave: modelagem hidrológica, SWAT-CUP, BIS Calibration technique for modeling the São Francisco watershed, Brazil, using SWAT A B S T R A C TThe Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a hydrosedimentological model whose main focus is to evaluate the impacts of changes in land use on the quality and quantity of water in watersheds. For these evaluations to be adequate, considering the representativeness of the processes simulated by the model, it is necessary to carry out the calibration procedure. Many modelers find a great challenge in this essential stage of modelling. There are a wide variety of parameters to consider, different algorithms, as well as different objective functions. Another aspect to be highlighted is the fact that the processing time can be high, when considering representative watersheds, as is the case of the São Francisco River basin, Brazil (639,219 km²). To meet the demand for the creation of an integrated water management model for BIS countries (Brazil, India and South Africa) under climate change scenarios, the São Francisco basin was calibrated. This scientific note aims to provide an overview of the calibration procedure using flow data in a monthly time step from 1961 to 2016 in the studied basin. The SWAT model calibrated for the São Francisco River basin can be used to analyze climate change scenarios and their impacts on the water availability of the basin, thus supporting decision-making on water resources and the creation of a management model. integrated with the other BIS countries.Keywords: hydrological modeling, SWAT-CUP, BIS.

Use of Soil Moisture as an Indicator for Climate Change, Using the SUPer System

“…SUPer is a simulation model for the quantification and quality of water in the basin. More detail for SUPER can see in [5,12,26,29].…”

Use of Soil Moisture as an Indicator for Climate Change, Using the SUPer System

“…The hydrological model Soil Water Assessment Tools-SWAT is very widespread in Brazil and due to the need for adjustments in the results obtained through modeling and observed data, it is necessary to carry out a calibration. Different studies have been developed to calibrate the swat model to Brazil, [2,13,23,27] northeast of Brazil, [11], and for the Pernambuco basins [1,5,11,[24][25][26]. The intention was and is to provide a system that can facilitate the monitoring and planning of watersheds.…”

Assessment of Water Availability and Environmental Influence on People’s Lives in a Small Basin in the Hinterland of Pernambuco, Using the SUPer and UAV

“…The hydrological model Soil Water Assessment Tools-SWAT is very widespread in Brazil and due to the need for adjustments in the results obtained through modeling and the observed data, it is necessary to carry out a calibration. Different studies have been developed to calibrate the swat model to Brazil [9], including [10][11][12], and for the northeast of Brazil [13], and for the Pernambuco basins [14][15][16]. The intention was and is to provide a system that can facilitate the monitoring and planning of watersheds.…”