Technology forecasting: Aircraft hazard detection

Measuring the evolution of microcomputer technology

“…DeLaney (1973) published an early paper that used the scoring model to compare aircraft hazard detection equipment. These hazard detection systems monitor fire, overheating, and other dangerous conditions to provide sufficient warning so that a pilot can take corrective action (DeLaney, 1973). Given the differing natures of these hazardous phenomena, as well as the variety of operating conditions encountered, the specific requirements for these systems and their methodology/ capabilities for detecting the dangerous conditions vary widely (DeLaney, 1973).…”

“…These hazard detection systems monitor fire, overheating, and other dangerous conditions to provide sufficient warning so that a pilot can take corrective action (DeLaney, 1973). Given the differing natures of these hazardous phenomena, as well as the variety of operating conditions encountered, the specific requirements for these systems and their methodology/ capabilities for detecting the dangerous conditions vary widely (DeLaney, 1973). DeLaney (1973) turned to a scoring model since "to forecast the technology a parameter must be identified which adequately describes all hazard detection systems.…”

“…Given the differing natures of these hazardous phenomena, as well as the variety of operating conditions encountered, the specific requirements for these systems and their methodology/ capabilities for detecting the dangerous conditions vary widely (DeLaney, 1973). DeLaney (1973) turned to a scoring model since "to forecast the technology a parameter must be identified which adequately describes all hazard detection systems. A review of the factors relating to hazard detection revealed that there was no single one which fully described the technology.…”

“…A review of the factors relating to hazard detection revealed that there was no single one which fully described the technology. However, by grouping all the factors together, an indexing parameter resulted which applies to the design of all fire, explosion, and overheat detection systems" (DeLaney, 1973).…”

“…In his scoring model, DeLaney (1973) included factors such as: specificity of sensor response (S), ability of sensor to reset (R), sensor reliability (M), false alarm rate of sensor (G), area coverage of the sensor (K), operating temperature range (H), and sensor response time (t). These factors were then combined into a single relationship: T = (S*R*M*G*K*H)/t (DeLaney, 1973). DeLaney (1973) found a correlation between increasing T values and higher performance hazard detection systems as the technology matured, and concluded that higher T values indicated sensor concepts that were more desirable candidates for future research.…”