Technology Diffusion

Abstract

This chapter provides a theoretical framework of technology diffusion, which is defined as a dynamic and time-attributed process involving the transfer of information, knowledge and innovations, and standing for a continuous and gradual spread of new ideas throughout large-scale and heterogeneous societies. First, it extensively discusses theoretical technology diffusion concepts and models, explaining the technology diffusion trajectories by the use of S-shaped curves. Second, it presents the fundamental ideas and models standing behind the idea of technological substitution. Third, there is demonstrated a novel approach to identification of the 'technological take-off' and 'critical mass' effects with respect to the dynamics of the technology diffusion process and its prerequisites. Finally, based on theoretical frameworks derived from economic growth theories, it shows conceptualizations of technology convergence and technology convergence clubs.

Resource competition and technological diversity

“…The extent of use of a new technology can be measured in a number of ways, three of which are most common: (i) absolute total usage/ownership at a given instant of time; (ii) usage/ownership relative to some total output measure, e. g. GDP; and (iii) total usage relative to some estimated post-diffusion (asymptotic or saturation) level of utilization [ 6 ]. Early and subsequent studies [ 7 – 12 ] found that the key temporal features of diffusion followed the typical pattern of a constrained S -shaped curve. Diffusion rates first increase and then decrease over time, featuring a phase of relatively rapid adoption sandwiched between an early interval of slow growth and a late segment of decelerated approach to saturation.…”

“…Most of the available regression models are basically extensions, generalizations or combinations of the growth laws originally proposed by Verhulst [ 13 ], Bass [ 14 ], and Gompertz [ 15 ]. Inasmuch as the present research is not directly concerned with the validation of diffusion models by the instruments of regression analysis, we refer the reader to comprehensive surveys [ 12 , 16 – 20 ] for more information in that direction.…”