Technological foresight—the use of biotechnology in the development of new drugs against breast cancer

Canongia, Cláudia; Antunes, Adelaide Maria de Souza; Pereira, Maria de Nazaré Freitas

doi:10.1016/j.technovation.2003.10.001

Cited by 18 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…More than half of company predictions for MA were optimistic, being earlier than the actual date. Our findings regarding the accuracy of pharmaceutical company predictions agree with the general comments of other authors, who suggest that one cannot expect fully accurate predictions and that by their very nature some predictions will inevitably be wrong . Accordingly, there are inherent limits to the accuracy of healthcare horizon scanning programmes and the future will always be uncertain.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Accuracy of pharmaceutical company licensing predictions: projected versus actual licensing dates

Doos

Ward

Stevens

et al. 2016

J Pharm Health Serv Res

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ObjectivesTo determine the accuracy of pharmaceutical companies' predictions of drug licensing timeframes for their products in late stage clinical development.MethodsWe compared predicted licensing dates provided to the National Institute for Health Research Horizon Scanning Research and Intelligence Centre by pharmaceutical companies against actual marketing authorisation application (MAA) and marketing authorisation (MA) dates published by the European Medicines Agency for drugs granted authorisation between 2009 and 2013.Key findingsOne hundred and twenty‐three drugs met our inclusion criteria. About 78% were new drugs and 16% had orphan designation. Less than half (44%) and less than a quarter (24%) of MAA and MA predictions respectively were considered accurate (same month or 1 month either side of the actual date). Pharmaceutical companies were significantly more accurate in predicting MAA dates than MA dates (P < 0.001). For accurate predictions, the mean duration between the prediction being made and the actual MAA and MA dates were 17.5 and 18.7 months respectively. Out of the total 108 MA predictions, almost two‐thirds (65.4%, 16/26) of short‐term predictions (made in the 2 years prior to the actual MA) were accurate. For predicted dates that were earlier than the actual MA date, there was a positive relationship between accuracy and the time between the prediction and authorisation.ConclusionsEven in predicting near events from well‐informed sources, accuracy is imperfect. There appears to be an optimum time for the provision of accurate information on predicted MAA and MA dates for drugs. This information is crucial for effective early awareness and alert activities.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Accuracy of pharmaceutical company licensing predictions: projected versus actual licensing dates

Doos

Ward

Stevens

et al. 2016

J Pharm Health Serv Res

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“…This is especially the case when e.g. dealing with knowledge transfer, strategic management questions, technological foresight or the performance of different organizations or countries [1,9,16,21,22,29,31,33,39,62,69]. An additional reason for this popularity of patent analyses lies in the fact that probably more than 80% of the world's technological knowledge is to be found in patents [27].…”

Section: A Analysis Of Patent and Scientific Publication Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Seeing the next iphone coming your way: How to anticipate converging industries

Curran

Leker

2009

PICMET '09 - 2009 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering &Amp; Technology

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The blurring of boundaries between hitherto distinct scientific disciplines, technologies or markets is a common and powerful phenomenon. Traditionally, it has been discussed in respect to telecommunications, information technologies and electronics. Subjects of this convergence often change what and where customers buy, with Apple's renowned iPhone being one current example for customers' tendency towards products with multiple benefits. More recently also the chemical and its related industries find themselves affected by a larger convergence process. Concentrating on developments at the outposts of the chemical industry, we discuss indications of convergence with an example from the area of 1utraceuticals and Cosmeceuticals. Furthermore, we present and discuss a multiple indicator concept for monitoring convergence in an R&D-intensive field on the basis of publicly available data. We analyze 7,455 scientific and patent references on phytosterols with the aid of SciFinder Scholar and 3,836 documents employing ST1 AnaVist. Our results show clear indications for convergence and a proof of principle for our monitoring concept. A closer look at convergence and effective tools for spotting weak signals appears to be necessary. Particularly for practitioners, the opportunity to get a head start on their current and future competitors is of high strategic importance.

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“…Therefore, the intent of this paper is to report on the European results of a study on competitive intelligence practices around the world to identify current practices and compare these results to those from the 2006 studies to see if there has been any change in European CI practice. Finally, given the similarities between corporate foresight and competitive intelligence (Canongia et al 2004;Calof and Smith 2009;Calof, Richards and Smith, 2015;Hammoud and Nash 2014;Neugarten 2006), a comparison is made of the results of this study with corporate foresight study results.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%