Technological Change, Depletion and the U.S. Petroleum Industry

Cuddington, John T.; Moss, Diana L.

doi:10.2139/ssrn.224625

Cited by 9 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Is oil peaking just a series of happy (or unhappy) accidents that is not amenable to economic analysis? 7 This paper answers these questions by presenting four economic models that generate peaks in production without resorting to market failures. The models are solidly based on the classic Hotelling theoretical framework of optimizing producers and consumers.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling Peak Oil

Holland

2008

The Energy Journal

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Peak oil" refers to the future decline in world production of crude oil and to the accompanying potentially calamitous effects. The majority of the literature on peak oil is non-economic and ignores price effects even when analyzing policies. Unfortunately, most economic models of depletable resources do not generate production peaks. I present four models which generate production peaks in equilibrium. Production increases in the models are driven by: demand increases, cost reductions through advancing technology, cost reductions through reserve additions, and production capacity increases through site development. Production decreases are driven by scarcity. The models do not rely on market failures and indicate that a peak in production may arise from efficient intertemporal optimization. The models shows that prices are a better indicator of impending scarcity than peaking is and that peak production can occur when any percentage from 0-100% of the original deposit remains. JEL codes: Q3 and Q4.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling Peak Oil

Holland

2008

The Energy Journal

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“…Research and development ( D R& ). At present, there are R&D expenditures that are commonly used by the academic community for R&D input indicators [29,30,31], patent applications [32,33,34], Innovating product sales income [35,36]. This article mainly uses the ratio of the internal expenditure of Chongqing's manufacturing R&D to the total industrial output value as a measure.…”

Section: Econometric Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Industrial Agglomeration, Foreign Direct Investment and Green Total Factor Productivity―Evidence from Manufacturing Industries in Chongqing, China

Guo-hua¹,

Xu²

2018

Preprint

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This paper studies the influence mechanism of industrial agglomeration and foreign direct investment (FDI) on green total factor productivity (GTFP). We use the SBM Directional Distance Function to measure the GTFP of Chongqing's manufacturing industry from 1999 to 2015. The results show that the level of GTFP in Chongqing's manufacturing industry is relatively low, which is contrary to the current green development mode. By clarifying the conduction path of industrial agglomeration and FDI on GTFP, we use the panel Tobit model to study the effect of industrial agglomeration and FDI on GTFP. The main findings are: the higher the level of industrial agglomeration, the more beneficial it is to increase GTFP. FDI has an inhibitory effect on GTFP. The spillover effect of FDI on GTFP is not significant. At the same time, FDI counteracts the role of industrial agglomeration in promoting GTFP. The findings in a present study indicate that, according to Chongqing's experience, the "pollution haven" is established. Therefore, relying solely on foreign technology to promote the development of the manufacturing industry has many drawbacks clearly. Only by improving the ability of independent innovation is the reliable way to enhance GTFP effectively.

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“…From 1970 to 1976, expropriations by over 35 countries accounted for more than 70% of the 1970 world production. 12 Given the dominance of the industry in the developing host countries' economies, expropriation could be attractive for increasing revenue. 13 Sovereignty over their own resources is another factor; foreign ownership is inconsistent with national control.…”

Section: Expropriations In the Oil Industrymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…29 Production per operating well which can also be considered a measure of productivity in the oil industry follows a similar path. 30 Cuddington and Moss (2001) [12] show that technology diffusions in exploration and development over 1966-90 are concentrated in two periods: 1971-72 and 1983-84. Major advances, such as applications of microcomputers, take place in the early 1980s.…”

Section: Key Patterns In the Oil Industrymentioning

confidence: 99%

Productivity, Nationalization, and the Role of “News”: Lessons From the 1970s

Melek

2018

Macroecon. Dynam.

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Occurrences of an old phenomenon, the expropriation of foreign-owned property, peaked in the 1970s when virtually every significant oil-producing developing country nationalized its oil. Nationalization was again on the rise in the 2000s. Using novel data, this paper quantitatively evaluates the effects of nationalization. First, the paper finds significant productivity losses associated with nationalization in a sample of oil-producing countries. Venezuela in particular experienced a striking decline in productivity. Second, the paper presents a new channel through which nationalization affects productivity: a long-term pre-announcement can shift the composition of the workforce with a huge decline in highly skilled foreign workers and result in higher extraction and lower exploration. Guided by a quantitative dynamic partial equilibrium framework disciplined by features of the Venezuelan data, this paper then evaluates the effects of nationalization. A comparison of the simulated and time series data shows that the model can explain about 80% of the productivity pattern over 1961–1980 in the Venezuelan oil industry. Counterfactual experiments suggest that the shift in the composition of the workforce is important in accounting for the productivity pattern. Furthermore, if nationalization had been sudden, long-run losses would have been lower.

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Technological Change, Depletion and the U.S. Petroleum Industry

Cited by 9 publications

References 21 publications

Modeling Peak Oil

Modeling Peak Oil

Industrial Agglomeration, Foreign Direct Investment and Green Total Factor Productivity―Evidence from Manufacturing Industries in Chongqing, China

Productivity, Nationalization, and the Role of “News”: Lessons From the 1970s

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