Technoeconomic comparison of alternative vehicle technologies for South Africa's road transport system

Gajjar, Hitesh; Mondol, Jayanta Deb

doi:10.1080/15568318.2015.1026007

Cited by 8 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…The NATMAP 2050 discusses sectoral energy demand to contextualise the impact of transport, but besides the IEP, integrated full-sector studies are lacking. Gajjar and Mondol (2015) conducted a similar techno-economic study of alternative vehicle adoption in the country, but analysed the transport sector in isolation with a focus on passenger vehicles only.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Road transport vehicles in South Africa towards 2050: Factors influencing technology choice and implications for fuel supply

Ahjum

Merven²,

Stone³

et al. 2018

J. energy South. Afr.

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The South African transport sector is estimated to emit 60 MtCO 2 eq and require 800 PJ of energy, similar in scale to industrial energy demand and emissions. The sector is forecast to potentially eclipse industry in this regard if conventional vehicle choices and travel modes persist. This paper explores scenarios of transport technology choices and demand in a future of uncertain fuel and technology costs, and the consequences for energy supply and greenhouse gas emissions. It explores the extent of electric vehicle (EV) adoption and the implication of fuel migration from petroleum products. The preference for alternative fuels such as hydrogen, liquid biofuels and natural gas is also investigated. The evolution of road transport in South Africa towards 2050 is investigated utilising the South African TIMES model, a full energy sector least-cost optimisation model that relies on a rich technological database of the entire energy supply and demand system. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are shown to be a viable option in freight and public transport, potentially meeting 70% of travel demand by 2045. The private passenger and light commercial sectors emerge as the main market for electric vehicles, potentially accounting for 80% of new vehicle sales by 2045. Electricity as a transport fuel could account for 30% of fuel supply and reduce transport emissions to half of present day estimates. However, the key uncertainty driving EV adoption is future vehicle costs and crude oil prices, which could dampen EV uptake. Another main finding is that petroleum-dependent vehicles remain an important vehicle class, and that re-investment in existing crude oil refineries to conform to Euro5 standards is a likely requirement. There seems to be little indication, however, that additional refining capacity would be economically viable within the planning horizon.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Road transport vehicles in South Africa towards 2050: Factors influencing technology choice and implications for fuel supply

Ahjum

Merven²,

Stone³

et al. 2018

J. energy South. Afr.

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show abstract

“…The Energy Research Centre at the University of Cape Town and the South African National Energy Development Institute used the South African TIMES Model (SATIM) in 2012, which is a least-cost optimisation model of the TIMES/MARKAL family, to assess the demand for energy from transport to 2050 (Merven, et al, 2012). The outputs of that study were widely applied (Department of Environmental Affairs, 2014;DoE, 2012;DoE, 2016;Gajjar & Mondol, 2015). A series of papers, of which this is the first, will update these outputs, improving on some of the gaps identified in the previous work and presenting new work based on outputs of a version of the SATIM energy systems model that is linked to an economic model (Merven et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Providing a foundation for road transport energy demand analysis: The development of a vehicle parc model for South Africa

Stone

Merven

Maseela

et al. 2018

J. energy South. Afr.

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It is key for national economic planning to build the tools to forecast energy demand from major sectors like transport in a credible way. As a starting point, this requires building a sufficiently detailed 'bottomup' picture of technologies and their activity levels in the recent past. A vehicle parc model was developed for South Africa to feed transport demand and data on the fleet into a national energy systems model, the South African TIMES model, which is a least-cost optimisation model of the TIMES/ MARKAL family. Detailed assumptions were developed for 24 vehicle typologies that included the vintage profile, annual mileage and its relationship with age, fuel economy and its improvement over time, and occupancy and load factor. Combining these assumptions, the model was successfully calibrated over 2000-2014 with the national registration database, national fuel sales statistics and, on the freight side, with estimates of the demand for ton.km published by the University of Stellenbosch's Department of Logistics (2014 only). A demand for passenger.km was also calculated, which agreed well with national transport surveys. A range of detailed indicators were produced for the vehicle typologies and some interesting trends observed, including the steady dieselisation of the light vehicle fleet over the study period and the stagnation of passenger car fuel economy, despite legislation in the European Union. The present study believes that this updated data-rich picture of the road transport vehicle parc will support other studies and national policy and planning initiatives.

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The role of renewable fuel supply in the transport sector in a future decarbonized energy system

Michalski

Poltrum

Bünger

2019

International Journal of Hydrogen Energy

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Technoeconomic comparison of alternative vehicle technologies for South Africa's road transport system

Cited by 8 publications

References 11 publications

Road transport vehicles in South Africa towards 2050: Factors influencing technology choice and implications for fuel supply

Road transport vehicles in South Africa towards 2050: Factors influencing technology choice and implications for fuel supply

Providing a foundation for road transport energy demand analysis: The development of a vehicle parc model for South Africa

The role of renewable fuel supply in the transport sector in a future decarbonized energy system

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