Techno-Economic Assessment of Amine-Based CO₂ Capture Process at Coal-Fired Power Plants: Uncertainty Analysis

Abstract

This paper provides a techno-economic analysis of carbon capture technologies for coal-fired power plants, which are significant contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. The study evaluates the strengths and weaknesses of different technologies, including supercritical and ultrasupercritical power plants, as well as different capacities of 1000 MW, 800 MW, and 500 MW. The analysis focuses on amine-based postcombustion as a carbon capture system, which is widely used in industries. Additionally, the study compares the cost and performance of retrofitting existing power plants with carbon capture systems of varying ages. Finally, the analysis includes sensitivity and probabilistic uncertainty analyses to assess the impact of uncertainties on the results. The findings reveal that carbon capture is still necessary even in ultrasupercritical plants, and that the capacity factor has the greatest impact on the levelized cost of energy, while the discount rate has the lowest impact. The probabilistic uncertainty analysis indicates that deterministic estimates may underestimate the LCOE and carbon capture costs by up to 40%, underscoring the importance of considering uncertainties in decision-making processes.