Techno-economic analysis of catalytic hydrothermolysis pathway for jet fuel production

Eswaran, Sudha; Subramaniam, Senthil; Geleynse, Scott; Brandt, Kristin; Wolcott, Michael P.; Zhang, Xiao

doi:10.1016/j.rser.2021.111516

Cited by 37 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…As indicated above, a better understanding of the risk borne by SAF enterprises may provide insights on policies distributing those incentives across supply chain players. Previous research has highlighted the major role played by these incentives on SAF production, but also recognized that the precise nature of the impact on aviation fuel pathways is complex (Eswaran et al, 2021). Thus, those incentives are left outside the scope of this analysis.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Factors such as improved fuel consumption and infrastructure are important, but the use of biomass derived, or sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is projected to be the most important factor driving carbon reduction in aviation (Wang et al, 2019;Khanal and Shah, 2021). SAF is a substitute or complementary product for fossil jet fuels, produced from a variety of feedstocks including waste organics, agricultural residues, and crops cultivated for human food consumption (Air BP, 2021;Eswaran et al, 2021;SkyNRG, 2021). Currently available SAF production technologies in the US have been evaluated.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recently published TEA studying the economic viability of SAF focusing on promising feedstocks other than pennycress include Eswaran et al (2021), Kubic et al (2021), andMcCollum et al (2021). Eswaran et al (2021) estimated the minimum selling price (MSP) of SAF produced with carinata oil, soybean oil, yellow grease, and brown grease at $1.32, $1.50, $1.19, and $1.00 L −1 respectively; all these prices above the average price of petroleum-based jet fuel from 2008 to 2018, at $0.60 L −1 . Similarly, Kubic et al (2021) estimated that the MSP of SAF produced with paper from municipal solid waste is lower than SAF produced with corn stover, but still not competitive with petroleum-based jet fuel.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Biofuel Discount Rates and Stochastic Techno-Economic Analysis for a Prospective Pennycress (Thlaspi arvense L.) Sustainable Aviation Fuel Supply Chain

et al. 2021

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The international aviation industry has the goal to gradually reduce carbon emissions mainly by using sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). However, currently SAF cannot be produced at competitive prices relative to petroleum-based jet fuel. Pennycress is a crop whose oilseed could be used as a relatively low-cost feedstock to produce SAF, potentially benefiting farmers and the environment. This stochastic techno-economic analysis (TEA) studies an enterprise buying pennycress oilseed from farmers, extracting the bio-oil and selling it to a biorefinery that converts bio-oil into SAF. Maximum buying prices (MBP)—prices that yield a zero net present value—the crushing enterprise could pay farmers for pennycress oilseed are estimated. To conduct the analysis, discount rates are estimated based on financial data of biofuel firms, thus providing a realistic benchmark to evaluate profitability and feedstock buying prices. Estimated risk-adjusted discount rates vary between 12 and 17%, above rates typically used in similar valuations. Estimated stochastic MBP range between 10.18 and 11.73 ¢ pound−1, which is below the price at which farmers are willing to plant pennycress, according to recent research. By considering the crushing facility’s inherent cash flow structure and risk, the distributions of stochastic modified internal rate of return suggest the crushing enterprise could be economically attractive at a 14% discount rate, our most likely estimate. However, between 11 and 17% times the cash flow model is simulated, the firm falls under financial distress. Overall, the findings suggest potential barriers for deployment of a SAF supply chain without governmental incentives or related policies.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Biofuel Discount Rates and Stochastic Techno-Economic Analysis for a Prospective Pennycress (Thlaspi arvense L.) Sustainable Aviation Fuel Supply Chain

et al. 2021

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“…The deterministic models were constructed using ratio factors to estimate outside battery limit (OSBL) costs from inside battery limit (ISBL) equipment costs (Peters et al, 2003). This method uses factors to estimate the typical costs of OSBL infrastructure based on historical data, has an estimated accuracy of ±20-30%, and has been implemented often for biofuels in the existing literature (Humbird et al, 2011;Davis et al, 2015;de Jong et al, 2015;Geleynse et al, 2018;Brandt et al, 2020;Eswaran et al, 2021;Tanzil et al, 2021). Details of the methodology can be found in Peters et al (2003) and Brandt et al (2020).…”

Section: Techno-economic Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Cumulative Impact of Federal and State Policy on Minimum Selling Price of Sustainable Aviation Fuel

2022

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With jet fuel consumption projected to more than double by 2050, dramatic expansion of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) use will be essential to meeting the aviation industry goal of achieving carbon neutrality in the same time frame. However, to date, the SAF price has, in part, been responsible for the lack of widespread adoption signaling the need for strong and stable policy. Multiple pathways have been developed and received ASTM approval to convert a variety of feedstocks into SAF, each with strengths and weaknesses that vary with conversion technology, feedstock, and production location. To assist researchers and governments in understanding the role of policy on fuel pricing, a set of harmonized, techno-economic analyses (TEAs) were developed to assess three ASTM-qualified production pathways: hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFAs), alcohol to jet (ATJ), and Fischer–Tropsch (FT), with multiple feedstock options. These decision support tools were used to assess the minimum selling price (MSP) for fuel distillates. Both mature (nth) plants and first of a kind (pioneer plants) were assessed using TEAs. Existing and proposed U.S. incentives, at both the federal and state levels, were integrated into the tools to determine the impact on the MSP. Considering the existing federal policies, analysis indicated that HEFAs could achieve a SAF price that would be competitive to conventional fuels when using waste lipid feedstocks, making this the most viable near-term option. However, this feedstock for HEFAs is limited and unlikely to support the production of large quantities of SAF. After stacking federal and state programs, SAF produced using FT with municipal solid waste (MSW) has the lowest MSP, although FT forest residuals, FT agricultural residues, ATJ corn ethanol, and HEFAs using second crop oilseeds all approach the historical range of traditional jet fuel prices for nth plants. Pioneer plants are viable for only ATJ corn ethanol; however, FT-MSW is approaching price parity.

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“…Besides these papers, and while many papers have examined the extent to which the first and second-generation biofuels provide emissions savings, not much effort has been made to assess the potential emissions savings due to producing biofuels from oilseed cover crops such as pennycress and carinata. However, some other studies analyzed economics (Eswaran et al, 2021;Mousavi-Avval and Shah, 2021) and agronomy (Mohdaly and Ramadan, 2020;Kumar et al, 2020;López et al, 2021) of pennycress and carinata. A typical oilseed cover crop can be produced as a second crop in rotation with other crops in 1 year on the existing croplands that remain fallow in winter otherwise.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Oilseed Cover Crops for Sustainable Aviation Fuels Production and Reduction in Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through Land Use Savings

2022

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Induced Land Use Changes (ILUCs) can decrease the environmental benefits of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) if produced from traditional food crops. The development of oilseed cover crops can eliminate the side effect of ILUCs for biofuel production because they come in rotation with the major crops with some savings in demand for new cropland. This study implemented Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) and GTAP-BIO to estimate ILUC emissions values, the potentially available area, and total possible emissions savings of producing SAFs from carinata, camelina, and pennycress in the United States. The results suggest that: 1) the meals produced in conjunction with increases in Sustainable Aviation Fuel production from carinata, camelina, and pennycress could reduce land use emissions by 12.9, 15.3, and 18.3 gCO2e/MJ, respectively; 2) the total area of available land for producing these feedstocks could be about 29.3 million ha in 2035; and 3) using this area of land for SAF production, depends on the mix of oilseed cover crops that can be produced in practice, could generate up to 92 million metric tons of savings in GHG emissions per year. The projected emissions savings is about 11% of the current global GHG emissions generated by the aviation industry. Providing incentives to encourage farmers to produce these cover crops and facilitating investment in producing SAF from these cover crops are the most important factors that could help the aviation industry to enhance emissions savings.

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Techno-economic analysis of catalytic hydrothermolysis pathway for jet fuel production

Cited by 37 publications

References 21 publications

Biofuel Discount Rates and Stochastic Techno-Economic Analysis for a Prospective Pennycress (Thlaspi arvense L.) Sustainable Aviation Fuel Supply Chain

Biofuel Discount Rates and Stochastic Techno-Economic Analysis for a Prospective Pennycress (Thlaspi arvense L.) Sustainable Aviation Fuel Supply Chain

Cumulative Impact of Federal and State Policy on Minimum Selling Price of Sustainable Aviation Fuel

Oilseed Cover Crops for Sustainable Aviation Fuels Production and Reduction in Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through Land Use Savings

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