Teacher Supply and Demand: Surprises from Primary Research

Abstract

An investigation of primary research studies on public school teacher supply and demand revealed four surprises. Projections show that enrollments are leveling off. Relatedly, annual hiring increases should be only about two or three percent over the next few years. Results from studies of teacher attrition also yield unexpected results. Excluding retirements, only about one in 20 teachers leaves each year, and the novice teachers who quit mainly cite personal and family reasons, not job dissatisfaction. Each of these findings broadens policy makers' options for teacher supply.With teacher quality atop local, state, and federal agendas, the body of policy research that addresses teacher quality is very much in the spotlight. Hopefully some of the knowledge generated by researchers can prove helpful to policy makers.But to a surprising extent, the research community is not offering policy makers much that they can use. The policy researchers who shape public understanding of the 2 of 8 teacher quality issue are now making considerable efforts to challenge each other's work (e.g., Podgursky, 1999, 2000;Darling-Hammond, 1999). Although that debate will have salutary effects over the long-term, the short-term outlook for lay audiences is confusion over whom to trust.This article attempts to make progress by focusing on questions whose answers depend on more broadly understood analytic tools. It focuses on teacher supply and demand-only one part of the teacher quality story. But knowledge about supply and demand can help policy makers, and the requisite analytic tools are so simple that disagreement is unlikely.My examination of the knowledge base on the supply and demand of public school teachers led to several surprises. Rather than summarize all that is known, what follows focuses on those points where the common wisdom is wrong. Each of the four sections below contrasts what primary research studies say with what policy makers hear about supply and demand.The original studies come from long-term federal investments in survey research, overseen by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). The NCES is regarded as the most authoritative source of national evidence on teacher supply and demand. Its survey methods and analyses are thoroughly documented, and all of its documents are publicly available at www.nces.ed.gov. Enrollments are Leveling OffClose examination of NCES projections reveals that enrollments are leveling off. Mischaracterizations of these projections are very common. A recent RAND publication referred to "a dramatic increase in enrollments" over the next decade (Kirby, Naftel, and Berends, 1999, p.

Teacher Turnover: Examining Exit Attrition, Teaching Area Transfer, and School Migration

“…Across four TFSs from 1988-1989to 2000-2001, Luekens et al (2004 found that attrition was only about 2% higher for public teachers with 1 to 3 years of full-time teaching experience than with 4 to 9 years. We found a similar difference for SETs and GETs separately, with data from the three most recent TFSs.…”

“…Not all are suited; hence, these should leave (Johnson et al, 2005;NCES, 2005;NCTAF, 2003). And as Wayne (2000) concluded, only one quarter of beginning teachers leave to pursue other careers or because of dissatisfaction. Given these considerations, the somewhat higher rate of 28 attrition for public school teachers with 1 to 3 years of experience is not alarming and some of it is constructive.…”

Should I Stay or Should I Go? Examining the Career Choices of Alternatively Licensed Teachers in Urban Schools

“…The contemporary challenges urban districts face in recruiting and retaining teachers is well-documented (Jones and Sandidge 1997;Darling-Hammond and Sykes 2003), and projected estimates indicate the need for hiring approximately 200,000 new teachers each year into the foreseeable future so as to adequately staff these ''hard-to-staff'' schools (Education Commission of the States 2004 ;Hussar 1999;Wayne 2000). In order to address their staffing needs, urban districts increasingly rely on alternative certification programs designed to provide interested individuals with quick entry into the teaching profession and capitalize upon their greater age, life and work experience, and understanding of urban communities compared to individuals enrolled in traditional teacher education programs.…”

Development and Field Test of an Employment Selection Instrument for Teachers in Urban School Districts

“…This is especially the case in urban areas where the need for qualified teachers is great but disproportionately high attrition rates amongst beginning teachers contribute to perpetual staffing shortages (Hussar, 1999;Ingersoll, 1997Ingersoll, , 2001Wayne, 2000). For example, teacher turnover in low-income, racial minority schools occurs at rates 50% higher than more affluent, suburban schools (Darling-Hammon & Sykes, 2003).…”