Targeting rural development interventions: Empirical agent-based modeling in Nigerien villages

Abstract

a b s t r a c tThe aim of this article is to analyze the impact of development interventions on the population of three Nigerien villages that differ in terms of their agro-ecological, social and economic characteristics. This is performed by simulating the behavior of individuals in an agent-based modeling framework which integrates the village characteristics as well as the family internal rules that condition access to economic and production activities. Villagers are differentiated according to the social and agro-ecological constraints they are subjected to. Two development project interventions are simulated, assuming no land scarcity: increasing the availability of inorganic fertilizers for farmers and an inventory credit technique based on millet grain. Two distinct approaches were used to model the rationale of farmers' decision making: gains or losses in economic value or gains or losses in within-village ''reputation''. Our results show that village populations do not respond en masse to development interventions. Reputation has little effect on the population behavior and should be considered more as a local proxy for wealth amongst villagers, suggesting the monetization of these societies. Populations involve themselves in the two simulated development interventions only at sites where savings are possible. Some level of household food security and investment capacity is actually required to take part in the development interventions, which are largely conditioned by family manpower and size. As long as uncultivated land remains available in the village territory, support for inorganic fertilizers has little impact in the absence of any intensification process. Inventory credit engages a maximum of 25% of the population at the site with medium agro-ecological conditions. Therefore, both interventions should be viewed as a potential support tool for a limited part of the population capable of going beyond the survival level, but not as a generic poverty-alleviation panacea.

Participatory analysis of vulnerability to drought in three agro-pastoral communities in the West African Sahel

“…This study was conducted in three communities in Niger, namely Fakara, Gabi, and Zermou, with different rainfall, social, and economic conditions (Saqalli 2008;Saqalli et al 2011Saqalli et al , 2013. At all sites, climate is tropical semi-arid with rains distributed in one single rainy season from June to October.…”

“…The rocky and stony areas in the territory are used as grazing areas since they cannot be cropped. The rest of the territory is almost entirely covered by a sandy plain, constituting the major part of millet-cropped areas with sandier soils Ayantunde et al 2011;Saqalli et al 2011;Saqalli et al 2013. a Bouzous are the descendants of Tuareg slaves and freed during the colonization. They still keep large elements of Tuareg culture and keep mainly livestock than in the Fakara.…”

Modern Trends in Agricultural Development in Cameroon and Ways to Ensure Its Sustainability

“…Technologies related to soil nutrient management include the use of both organic and inorganic fertilizers. These studies have been implemented in two Western African countries, Mali (Dalton and Masters, 1998;Kruseman and Bade, 1998;Kuyvenhoven et al ,1998) and Niger (La Rovere et al, 2005;Saqalli et al, 2011), and in five Eastern African countries, Rwanda (Bidogeza et al, 2015), Kenya (Tittonell et al, 2009;Valdivia et al, 2012), Ethiopia (Holden and Shiferaw, 2004;Kuiper and Ruben, 2007), Uganda (Berger et al, 2006;Woelcke, 2006, Schreinemachers et al, 2007, and Malawi (Dorward, 1999). The introduction of grain legumes in the cropping system to improve soil nutrient management has been covered by four studies in Malawi (Franke et al 2014), Tunisia (Louhichi et al, 2010), Ghana (Yiridoe et al, 2006) and Mali (Kuyvenhoven et al, 1998).…”

“…The agro-economic models applied to assess technological innovations in Africa can be regrouped in three broad types of models: multi-agent system models (Bharwani et al 2005, Saqalli et al 2011, combination of multi-agent system and mathematical-programming models (Berger et al 2006, Schreinemachers et al 2007, Komarek and Ahmadi-Esfahani 2011, Wossen et al 2014) and mathematical-programming models (all other studies). As can be seen from Fig.…”

On the Use of Agricultural System Models for Exploring Technological Innovations Across Scales in Africa: A Critical Review

“…Technologies related to soil nutrient management include the use of both organic and inorganic fertilizers. These studies have been implemented in two Western African countries, Mali (Dalton and Masters, 1998;Kruseman and Bade, 1998;Kuyvenhoven et al ,1998) and Niger (La Rovere et al, 2005;Saqalli et al, 2011), and in five Eastern African countries, Rwanda (Bidogeza et al, 2015), Kenya Valdivia et al, 2012), Ethiopia (Holden and Shiferaw, 2004;Kuiper and Ruben, 2007), Uganda (Berger et al, 2006;Woelcke, 2006, Schreinemachers et al, 2007, and Malawi (Dorward, 1999). The introduction of grain legumes in the cropping system to improve soil nutrient management has been covered by four studies in Malawi (Franke et al 2014), Tunisia (Louhichi et al, 2010), Ghana (Yiridoe et al, 2006) and Mali .…”