“…Given the high level of year-on-year variability typical of real disease systems (te Beest et al , 2008) and the extent to which available models do not necessarily capture the complex dynamics of epidemics accurately enough to make such a precise prediction (Gent et al , 2013), this might be rather difficult in practice. There would also be questions raised surrounding the risk-aversion of growers and/or agronomists, who might – reasonably enough – wish to use higher doses of fungicides than are necessary on average to avoid failure of control in years with high disease pressures (Jørgensen et al , 2017), although in principle this might be mitigated via a sufficiently well-calibrated decision support system (Carisse et al , 2010). We have also not considered the economic aspects of our recommendations (te Beest et al , 2013), nor the potentially confounding effects of varying the timing of fungicide sprays (van den Berg et al , 2013, 2016), nor the emergence phase of resistance (Hobbelen et al , 2014; Mikaberidze et al , 2017), nor of spatial heterogeneity in coverage (Shaw, 2000; Parnell et al , 2005, 2006).…”