Target Date Fund Flows Amidst the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

The popularity of target date funds (TDFs) has recently increased among defined contribution pension plans. Despite their growing importance, how TDF flows and flow-performance relationships have changed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic is yet to be examined, particularly during the March 2020 market turmoil, when bond funds witnessed unprecedented outflows. We find that short-horizon TDFs experienced sizable outflows of over $13.5 billion between February and April 2020, whereas mid- and long-horizon TDFs received inflows over the same period. Given that short-horizon TDFs hold a much larger fraction of their portfolios on fixed-income securities, the outflows from these TDFs, whose fund-of-funds investment structure has been identified as a source of intra-family liquidity provision in previous studies, may have compromised the effectiveness of this liquidity provision mechanism during the COVID-19 market crash. We find that in the aftermath of the pandemic, the flow–performance relationship of short-horizon TDFs becomes markedly more concave, which hints at investors’ greater awareness of the downside risks associated with large outflows following their experience during the COVID-19 turmoil.