Tall precipitation cells in tropical cyclone eyewalls are associated with tropical cyclone intensification

Abstract

The association of tall precipitation with tropical cyclone intensification may have implications for the difficult task of forecasting the destructive potential of tropical cyclones. This study uses all of the well‐centered overflights of tropical cyclones from 1998 to 2003 seen by the TRMM Precipitation Radar. The chance of intensification increases when one or more extremely tall convective towers exist in the tropical cyclone's eyewall. We define an extremely tall convective tower as a convective cell with a 20 dBZ reflectivity signal that reaches an altitude of at least 14.5 km. In addition, we adapt this radar technique for use with more plentiful infrared and passive microwave data.

GHOST: A Satellite Mission Concept for Persistent Monitoring of Stratospheric Gravity Waves Induced by Severe Storms

“…RI is of enormous importance, not only because of the immediate risks presented, but because it is a necessary stage of development for the large majority of storms that reach "major" hurricane intensity (Lee et al 2016). In many cases, the onset of towering convection either precedes RI by 6-12 h or is coincident with it (Kelley et al 2004;Guimond et al 2010;Rogers et al 2013). These differences appear to be related to the persistence of convection as well as its location relative to the radius of maximum winds and the inertial stability of the core.…”

The Global Precipitation Measurement Mission

“…2) New insights into storm structures and mesoscale dynamics. The GPM radar will provide observations of the 3D structure of precipitation, succeeding TRMM in the tropics in detecting convective hot towers that often indicate rapid intensification of tropical storms Kelley et al 2004; see Fig. S1).…”

Nasa's Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes Experiment

“…Recent research from the TRMM satellite suggests that extremely deep eyewall clouds are associated with a 70% likelihood of intensification (Kelley et al 2004). Convective bursts tend to predominate in the premature stage of tropical cyclones (Hennon 2006), as was the case during the development of Dennis.…”