Taking the Measure of the TPP as Negotiated

Ciuriak, Dan; Dadkhah, Ali; Xiao, Jingliang

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2743009

Cited by 14 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Quantitative trade models (QTMs) are employed frequently to determine the welfare effects of trade policy experiments. QTMs are employed both in ex ante studies on the expected effects of free trade agreements like TTIP, CETA, and TPP (Felbermayr et al, 2013;Fontagne et al, 2013;Aichele et al, 2014;Felbermayr et al, 2015;Petri et al, 2011;Ciuriak et al, 2016) or of the breakup of free trade agreements like Brexit) and ex post studies on for example NAFTA ( (Caliendo and Parro, 2015), but also in studies evaluating the expected effects of the WTO-agreement on trade facilitation (WTO, 2015). This paper distinguishes between three types of QTMs in the literature: computable general equilibrium (CGE) models (for example Hertel (2013)); structural gravity (SG) models (for example Anderson and van Wincoop (2003)); and models employing exact hat algebra, EHA-models (for example Dekle et al (2008)).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The welfare effects of trade policy experiments in quantitative trade models

2019

WTO Working Papers

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This paper compares the solution methods and baseline calibration of three different quantitative trade models (QTMs): computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, structural gravity (SG) models and models employing exact hat algebra (EHA). The different solution methods generate identical results on counterfactual experiments if baseline trade shares or baseline trade costs are identical. SG models, calibrating the baseline to gravity-predicted shares, potentially suffer from bias in the predicted welfare effects as a result of misspecification of the gravity equation, whereas the other methods, calibrating to actual shares, potentially suffer from bias as a result of random variation and measurement error of trade flows. Simulations show that predicted shares calibration can generate large biases in predicted welfare effects if the gravity equation does not contain pairwise fixed effects or is estimated without domestic trade flows. Calibration to actual shares and to fitted shares based on gravity estimation including pairwise fixed effects display similar performance in terms of robustness to the different sources of bias.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The welfare effects of trade policy experiments in quantitative trade models

2019

WTO Working Papers

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…49 Another cites 100,000 job losses in South America and 500,000 in the U.S. 50 The textile and clothing sector in Vietnam, by contrast, is expected to heavily gain from the TPP 51 but only through diversion from other producers. 52 How shifts in employment will impact health will depend in large part on countries' labour market and social protection policies. 20 Previous work has suggested that employment growth in the textile and clothing sector does not necessarily lead to improved health outcomes in low and middle-income countries, especially in the context of weak labour market and social protection policies.…”

Section: Tpp Labour Chapter and Employment Relationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trade, Labour Markets and Health

McNamara

Labonté

2016

Int J Health Serv

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Previous analyses indicate that there are a number of potentially serious health risks associated with the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The objective of this work is to provide further insight into the potential health impacts of the TPP by investigating labour market pathways. The impact of the TPP on employment and working conditions is a major point of contention in broader public debates. In public health literature, these factors are considered fundamental determinants of health, yet they are rarely addressed in analyses of trade and investment agreements. We therefore undertake a prospective policy analysis of the TPP through a content analysis of the agreement's Labour Chapter. Provisions of the Chapter are analyzed with reference to the health policy triangle and four main areas through which labour markets influence health: power relations, social policies, employment conditions and working conditions. Findings indicate that implementation of the TPP can have important impacts on health through labour market pathways. While the Labour Chapter is being presented by proponents of the agreement as a vehicle for improvement in labour standards, we find little evidence to support this view. Instead, we find several ways the TPP may weaken employment relations to the detriment of health.

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“…1%, 9.3 109.3 25% = 2.1%. A somewhat different version of the bottom-up approach can be found in the study on the effects of Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) by Ciuriak et al (2016). This is an ex-ante study of the expected effects of TPP that is based on the negotiated treaty text to infer expected trade cost reductions.…”

Section: Bottom-up Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Non-tariff Measure Estimations in Different Impact Assessments

Bekkers¹,

Rojas‐Romagosa²

2019

Behind-the-Border Policies

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The Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, created in 1992 and currently directed by Professor Brigid Laffan, aims to develop inter-disciplinary and comparative research on the major issues facing the process of European integration, European societies and Europe's place in 21st century global politics.The Centre is home to a large post-doctoral programme and hosts major research programmes, projects and data sets, in addition to a range of working groups and ad hoc initiatives. The research agenda is organised around a set of core themes and is continuously evolving, reflecting the changing agenda of European integration, the expanding membership of the European Union, developments in Europe's neighbourhood and the wider world.For more information: http://eui.eu/rscas The Global Governance Programme at the EUIThe Global Governance Programme is one of the flagship programmes of the Robert Schuman Centre. It is a community of outstanding professors and scholars, that produces high quality research and engages with the world of practice through policy dialogue. Established and early-career scholars work on issues of global governance within and beyond academia, focusing on four broad and interdisciplinary areas: Global Economics, Europe in the World, Cultural Pluralism and Global Citizenship.The Programme also aims to contribute to the fostering of present and future generations of policy and decision makers through its executive training programme: the Academy of Global Governance, where theory and 'real world' experience meet and where leading academics, top-level officials, heads of international organisations and senior executives discuss on topical issues relating to global governance. For more information: http://globalgovernanceprogramme.eui.euThe European University Institute and the Robert Schuman Centre are not responsible for the opinions expressed by the author(s). Abstract *The reduction of non-tariff measures (NTMs) has become the key policy variable to evaluate modern and deep free trade agreements (FTAs), such as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). In this chapter we overview the two main approaches to estimating NTM reductions associated with the implementation of FTAs. We then detail how these reductions are estimated in different impact assessment studies of TTIP, we compare and analyse the main differences in these estimations and how they affect the overall economic impact of TTIP. We find that accounting for differences in the expected NTM reductions can explain a large share of the discrepancies regarding the overall potential economic effects between different impact assessments of TTIP. KeywordsNon-tariff measures, trade cost estimations, gravity models, CGE models, quantitative trade models, Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership * The opinions expressed in this article should be attributed to its author. They are not meant to represent the positions or opinions of the WTO and its members and are without prejudice to Members' rights and obligations under...

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Taking the Measure of the TPP as Negotiated

Cited by 14 publications

References 23 publications

The welfare effects of trade policy experiments in quantitative trade models

The welfare effects of trade policy experiments in quantitative trade models

Trade, Labour Markets and Health

Non-tariff Measure Estimations in Different Impact Assessments

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