Taking planetary nutrient boundaries seriously: Can we feed the people?

Kahiluoto, Helena; Kuisma, Miia; Kuokkanen, Anna; Mikkilä, Mirja; Linnanen, Lassi

doi:10.1016/j.gfs.2013.11.002

Cited by 64 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Drawing on estimates of future production and consumption, scholars have voiced concerns that the impacts of the livestock sector alone may bring irreversible environmental changes regardless of any technological methods of addressing climate change (Raphaely & Marinova, 2014). A major transformation of agrifood systems has thus been called for to meet the regulatory capacity of the earth, along with a global transition towards a more plant-based diet (i.e., diets which have the bulk of calories from plant sources while limiting or avoiding animal sources) (e.g., Kahiluoto, Kuisma, Kuokkanen, Mikkil€ a, & Linnanen, 2014;Stehfest et al, 2009). Such transition can also contribute to improve health due to decreased exposure to health-hazardous components (e.g., excessive ingestion of saturated fat and cholesterol) and increased exposure to protective items (e.g., higher amounts of fibre, folate, antioxidants, carotenoids and phytochemicals) (e.g., Sabat e, 2003;Scarborough, Allender, & Clarke, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Attached to meat? (Un)Willingness and intentions to adopt a more plant-based diet

2015

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In response to calls to expand knowledge on consumer willingness to reduce meat consumption and to adopt a more plant-based diet, this work advances the construct of meat attachment and the Meat Attachment Questionnaire (MAQ). The MAQ is a new measure referring to a positive bond towards meat consumption. It was developed and validated through three sequential studies following from an in-depth approach to consumer representations of meat. The construct and initial pool of items were firstly developed drawing on qualitative data from 410 participants in a previous work on consumers' valuation of meat. Afterwards, 1023 participants completed these items and other measures, providing data to assess item selection, factor structure, reliability, convergent and concurrent validity, and predictive ability. Finally, a sample of 318 participants from a different cultural background completed the final version of the MAQ along with other measures to assess measurement invariance, reliability and predictive ability. Across samples, a four-factor solution (i.e., hedonism, affinity, entitlement, and dependence) with 16 items and a second-order global dimension of meat attachment fully met criteria for good model fit. The MAQ subscales and global scale were associated with attitudes towards meat, subjective norm, human supremacy beliefs, eating habits, and dietary identity. They also provided additional explanatory variance above and beyond the core TPB variables (i.e. attitudes, subjective norm and perceived behavioral control) in willingness and intentions concerning meat substitution. Overall, the findings point towards the relevance of the MAQ for the study of meat consumption and meat substitution, and lend support to the idea that holding a pattern of attachment towards meat may hinder a shift towards a more plant-based diet.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Attached to meat? (Un)Willingness and intentions to adopt a more plant-based diet

2015

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“…Previous analysis of the global agricultural nitrogen cycle focussed mostly on the estimation of Nr flows in the present and past [14][15][16][17][18] as well as reference scenarios for future Nr flows and nitrogen fixation 4,[19][20][21][22] . Quantitative estimates for Nr mitigation potentials are, so far, only based on simple calculations 1,10,23 or do not provide a comprehensive overview over the available mitigation measures and their interactions 15,22,23 .…”

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confidence: 99%

Reactive nitrogen requirements to feed the world in 2050 and potential to mitigate nitrogen pollution

et al. 2014

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Reactive nitrogen (Nr) is an indispensable nutrient for agricultural production and human alimentation. Simultaneously, agriculture is the largest contributor to Nr pollution, causing severe damages to human health and ecosystem services. The trade-off between food availability and Nr pollution can be attenuated by several key mitigation options, including Nr efficiency improvements in crop and animal production systems, food waste reduction in households and lower consumption of Nr-intensive animal products. However, their quantitative mitigation potential remains unclear, especially under the added pressure of population growth and changes in food consumption. Here we show by model simulations, that under baseline conditions, Nr pollution in 2050 can be expected to rise to 102-156% of the 2010 value. Only under ambitious mitigation, does pollution possibly decrease to 36-76% of the 2010 value. Air, water and atmospheric Nr pollution go far beyond critical environmental thresholds without mitigation actions. Even under ambitious mitigation, the risk remains that thresholds are exceeded.

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“…A study by Gilland (2006) suggests that a global population of 9 billion -which is the medium projection of the UN Population Division (2004) for 2050 -will be beyond the earth's carrying capacity even if there is no shortage of fertilizers. Kahiluoto et al (2014) arrive at similar conclusions considering Bplanetary boundaries^. In a business-asusual scenario with continuing agricultural intensification, depletion of phosphorus mines will be inevitable, even if estimates of a Btime to depletion^vary by an order of magnitude.…”

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confidence: 63%

Phosphorus recycling and food security in the long run: a conceptual modelling approach

Weikard

2016

Food Sec.

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Food security for all is a global political goal and an outstanding moral concern. The common response to this concern is agricultural intensification, which includes among other things increasing inputs of fertilisers. The paper addresses the fact that phosphorus (P) is essential for agricultural production but large and increasing amounts of P fertilisers stem from depletable mines. This raises sustainability concerns and the possibility of long-term food insecurity. The paper analyses three scenarios for global phosphorus extraction and recycling under discounted utilitarianism. First, for a benchmark scenario without recycling, food security will inevitably be violated in the long run. Second, if we introduce P recycling, food security can be maintained but food production falls over time and approaches a minimum level just sufficient to feed the global population. Third, a sustainable (i.e. non-declining) path of food production is feasible. Compared to just maintaining a minimum level of food production the sustainable path requires greater recycling efforts. Recycling efforts are increasing over time but the total discounted costs are finite and, hence, sustainable food production seems feasible even if it depends on depletable phosphate mines.Keywords Phosphorus depletion . Food security . Phosphorus recycling . Sustainable food production Depletable phosphate mines: impacts for long-run food securityThe well-being of about one billion people is threatened by hunger and food insecurity (FAO 2009). This is arguably a moral disaster and a poor performance of our social and economic systems on the local and the global scale. But even worse, the efforts towards food security are thwarted by population growth and increasing scarcity of agricultural inputs. Notwithstanding efforts to improve food security governance (Pereira and Ruysenaar 2012) a common strategy towards global food security is agricultural intensification with increasing inputs of fertilisers, mainly nitrogen (N), potassium (K) and phosphorus (P) to increase yields (Pinstrup-Andersen and Pandya-Lorch 1998;Baldos and Hertel 2014; PinstrupAndersen 2014). While N fertilisers can be produced from atmospheric nitrogen (using energy), K and P fertilisers are extracted from depletable mines. While K is relatively abundant, P is more limited (Scholz and Wellmer 2013). Although the stocks of rock phosphate, the main source of mineral P fertilizers, are difficult to assess, there is a growing concern that mines might be depleted within a century (Steen 1998;Cordell et al. 2009;Smit et al. 2009;Keyzer 2010;Cordell and White 2015). Although other studies expect sufficient availability beyond the 21st century (van Vuuren et al. 2010;Koppelaar and Weikard 2013), the fact remains that rock phosphate is a depletable resource.1 This underlines the need to develop effective and low cost recycling options beyond the application of animal manure and composted organic wastes, the cheap options that are widely applied. Cordell et al. (2011) provide an over...

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Taking planetary nutrient boundaries seriously: Can we feed the people?

Cited by 64 publications

References 42 publications

Attached to meat? (Un)Willingness and intentions to adopt a more plant-based diet

Attached to meat? (Un)Willingness and intentions to adopt a more plant-based diet

Reactive nitrogen requirements to feed the world in 2050 and potential to mitigate nitrogen pollution

Phosphorus recycling and food security in the long run: a conceptual modelling approach

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