Tailoring Climate Parameters to Information Needs for Local Adaptation to Climate Change

Hackenbruch, Julia; Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Müller, Sebastian K.; Schipper, Janus Willem

doi:10.3390/cli5020025

Cited by 35 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…There is a need to quantify and understand the projections of future precipitation change and associated uncertainty to inform the possible use of climate information in adaptation planning (Hackenbruch et al 2017). Our analysis of end-oftwenty-first-century projections from a sample of 20 models from the CMIP ensemble reveals a dominant dipole pattern of precipitation change over SA and the SWIO with a wetting (drying) response to the north (south) of the ITCZ, with therefore an effective northward shift in the ITCZ.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Precipitation Projections over Central and Southern Africa and the Adjacent Indian Ocean: What Causes the Changes and the Uncertainty?

et al. 2018

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Future projections of precipitation at regional scales are vital to inform climate change adaptation activities. Therefore, is it important to quantify projected changes and associated uncertainty, and understand model processes responsible. This paper addresses these challenges for southern Africa and the adjacent Indian Ocean focusing on the local wet season. Precipitation projections for the end of the twenty-first century indicate a pronounced dipole pattern in the CMIP5 multimodel mean. The dipole indicates future wetting (drying) to the north (south) of the climatological axis of maximum rainfall, implying a northward shift of the ITCZ and south Indian Ocean convergence zone that is not consistent with a simple ''wet get wetter'' pattern. This pattern is most pronounced in early austral summer, suggesting a later and shorter wet season over much of southern Africa. Using a decomposition method we determine physical mechanisms underlying this dipole pattern of projected change, and the associated intermodel uncertainty. The projected dipole pattern is largely associated with the dynamical component of change indicative of shifts in the location of convection. Over the Indian Ocean, this apparent northward shift in the ITCZ may reflect the response to changes in the north-south SST gradient over the Indian Ocean, consistent with a ''warmest get wetter'' mechanism. Over land subtropical drying is relatively robust, particularly in the early wet season. This has contributions from dynamical shifts in the location of convection, which may be related to regional SST structures in the southern Indian Ocean, and the thermodynamic decline in relative humidity. Implications for understanding and potentially constraining uncertainty in projections are discussed.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Precipitation Projections over Central and Southern Africa and the Adjacent Indian Ocean: What Causes the Changes and the Uncertainty?

et al. 2018

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“…The MiKlip decadal prediction website (http://www.fona-miklip.de/decadal-forecast/decadal-forecast-for-2019-2028/) offers operational global decadal predictions of mean temperature. However, such general products are of limited value for potential users outside the science community, like stakeholders in civil services, governments or economy (Lemos et al ., 2012; Hackenbruch et al ., 2017; Schipper et al ., 2019). Recent user‐oriented projects (e.g., the EUPORIAS project for seasonal predictions; Buontempo et al ., 2018) suggest that user needs are rather specific across different sectors, and that individual prediction products are highly needed to enable applicability in the “real world.” Building on these conclusions, some efforts within MiKlip focussed on the needs of private companies and public authorities.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The regional MiKlip decadal prediction system for Europe: Hindcast skill for extremes and user‐oriented variables

Moemken

Feldmann

Pinto

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Regional climate predictions for the next decade are gaining importance, as this period falls within the planning horizon of politics, economy, and society. The potential predictability of climate indices or extremes at the regional scale is of particular interest. The German MiKlip project ("mid-term climate forecast") developed the first regional decadal prediction system for Europe at 0.44 resolution, based on the regional model COSMO-CLM using global MPI-ESM simulations as boundary conditions. We analyse the skill of this regional system focussing on extremes and user-oriented variables. The considered quantities are related to temperature extremes, heavy precipitation, wind impacts, and the agronomy sector. Variables related to temperature (e.g., frost days, heat wave days) show high predictive skill (anomaly correlation up to 0.9) with very little dependence on lead-time, and the skill patterns are spatially robust. The skill patterns for precipitation-related variables (e.g., heavy precipitation days) and windbased indices (like storm days) are less skilful and more heterogeneous, particularly for the latter. Quantities related to the agronomy sector (e.g., growing degree days) show high predictive skill, comparable to temperature. Overall, we provide evidence that decadal predictive skill can be generally found at the regional scale also for extremes and user-oriented variables, demonstrating how the utility of decadal predictions can be substantially enhanced. This is a very promising first step towards impact-related modelling at the regional scale and the development of individual useroriented products for stakeholders.

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“…To adapt to the increased aridity in West Africa, farmers have used indigenous and modern coping strategies. Examples of these techniques include soil and water conservation practices [9,10], agricultural water harvesting techniques [11][12][13][14] and, very recently, climate information services or early warning systems [15][16][17]. The introduction of weather forecasting systems for risk management in agricultural practices sounds relevant as it provides timely weather information, helping producers to take appropriate decisions [17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Closing the Gap between Climate Information Producers and Users: Assessment of Needs and Uptake in Senegal

Ouédraogo

Diouf

Ouédraogo

et al. 2018

Climate

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West Africa is a very vulnerable part of the world to the impacts of climate change due to a combination of exposure and low adaptive capacity. Climate change has induced an increase in rainfall variability which in turn has affected the availability of water resources, ecosystem services and agricultural production. To adapt to the increased aridity, farmers have used indigenous and modern coping strategies such as soil and water conservation techniques, the use of drought-tolerant crops and varieties, crop diversification, etc., and lately, climate information services (CIS). The latter, according to the discourses, has positively contributed to suitable decision-making in terms of farming, pastoral and fishing management systems. However, the scientific documentation of the engagement approaches, the uptake of the CIS and the ways the delivered information is being used, as well as feedback from the users, is lacking. Additionally, in most of the cases where CIS are introduced, the disconnect between the users and producers of the CIS seems to undercut large-scale uptake. The objective of this paper is to examine the approach used to involve stakeholders in the CIS uptake process in Senegal. We analyzed the experiences and lessons learnt in the country where various CIS products were introduced using participatory methods (stakeholder consultations, interviews, field demonstrations, training workshops, etc.) and innovative stressors (SMS, voice messages, radios, mobile applications, etc.) to effectively involve producers, technicians and policy-makers. Results showed that 16 relevant CIS have been produced out of 27 identified by the various users; 11 CIS diffusion channels have been developed out of 13 requested; 27 climate advisory bodies (MWGs) have been created in 27 districts out of 30 districts in the study zone; about 6800 users have been trained directly and indirectly to effectively use CIS and about 8500 people are receiving CIS via SMS, voice messaging and emails. The opportunities for CIS uptake as well as the challenges that may impede the long-term sustainability of CIS upscaling in the country are highlighted. Recommendations that will improve and sustain the governance system of CIS in Senegal and the rest of West Africa include the involvement of private sectors in the chain of production, delivery and training, and the inciting of producers to largely subscribe to the weather-based index insurance.

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Tailoring Climate Parameters to Information Needs for Local Adaptation to Climate Change

Cited by 35 publications

References 46 publications

Future Precipitation Projections over Central and Southern Africa and the Adjacent Indian Ocean: What Causes the Changes and the Uncertainty?

Future Precipitation Projections over Central and Southern Africa and the Adjacent Indian Ocean: What Causes the Changes and the Uncertainty?

The regional MiKlip decadal prediction system for Europe: Hindcast skill for extremes and user‐oriented variables

Closing the Gap between Climate Information Producers and Users: Assessment of Needs and Uptake in Senegal

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