Tailor-made scenario planning for local adaptation to climate change

Carlsen, Henrik; Dreborg, Karl Henrik; Wikman–Svahn, Per

doi:10.1007/s11027-012-9419-x

Cited by 51 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 32 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Recent examples include Sheppard et al (2011), who developed local scenarios as a participatory capacity-building process and as a decision support for climate change adaptation in British Columbia. Carlsen et al (2012) developed a method to construct and use tailor-made local scenarios for adaptation to climate change in Sweden. NOAA Coastal Services Center (Marcy et al 2012) describes a scenario approach for planning for sea-level change impacts.…”

Section: Concluding Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Planning for future sea-level rise in Swedish municipalities

et al. 2013

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A warmer climate leads to rising sea levels. Despite uncertainties about how rapid and substantial future sea-level rise (SLR) will be, society needs to prepare and adapt. This study examines the state of planning for future SLR in Sweden by surveying 33 coastal municipalities in southern Sweden and interviewing local, regional and national authorities with relevant accountability. The results reveal that there are considerable gaps in current planning for SLR. Almost one-third of municipalities lack guiding planning documents for SLR, and more than two-thirds do not discuss SLR beyond 2100. We argue that the prevailing uncertainty and ambiguity in assessments of future SLR is problematic within a traditional "predict-then-act" paradigm, and that robust approaches, such as scenario planning, can reduce many of these problems.

show abstract

Section: Concluding Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Planning for future sea-level rise in Swedish municipalities

et al. 2013

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The content of all scenarios was ultimately defined by participants during workshops. The key methodological steps used to establish the scenarios were based on a number of recent sources, including those of Volkery et al (2006), Carlsen et al (2012), and Bizikova et al (2014). A total of five scenarios were defined for the region.…”

Section: Scenario Development Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Biesbroek et al (2011) and Bizikova et al (2014) highlight the need for broad sectoral consultation in conjunction with scenario approaches as tools to bring together climate impact information with socioeconomic development when designing adaptation options. This approach has been demonstrated both at the national level (Finland and the Netherlands) and at community levels (Canada, Sweden, and the UK; Carter et al 2005;Tompkins et al 2008;Shaw et al 2009;Carlsen et al 2012;Harrison et al 2013). Carlsen et al (2012) distinguish three major roles for scenarios in adaptation planning: (1) identifying future environmental and socioeconomic challenges; (2) identifying socioeconomic changes importance to deal with climate change impacts; and (3) identifying appropriate adaptation options.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This approach has been demonstrated both at the national level (Finland and the Netherlands) and at community levels (Canada, Sweden, and the UK; Carter et al 2005;Tompkins et al 2008;Shaw et al 2009;Carlsen et al 2012;Harrison et al 2013). Carlsen et al (2012) distinguish three major roles for scenarios in adaptation planning: (1) identifying future environmental and socioeconomic challenges; (2) identifying socioeconomic changes importance to deal with climate change impacts; and (3) identifying appropriate adaptation options. In most cases, scenarios are seen as learning and capacity-building tools to improve decision-makers' understanding of the consequences of climate change (Tompkins et al 2008;Mahmoud et al 2009;Shaw et al 2009;Bizikova et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In most cases, scenarios are seen as learning and capacity-building tools to improve decision-makers' understanding of the consequences of climate change (Tompkins et al 2008;Mahmoud et al 2009;Shaw et al 2009;Bizikova et al, 2014). Recent applications largely focus on socioeconomic challenges relevant for climate change, such as growing population, urbanization, and demand for food (Tompkins et al 2008;Shaw et al 2009), changes in tourism (Carlsen et al 2012), or policy development and governance (Harrison et al 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

An integrated decision-support process for adaptation planning: climate change as impetus for scenario planning in an agricultural region of Canada

et al. 2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The amount of information required to adapt to climate change is vast: downscaled climate projections, information on environmental impact, sectoral performance, external drivers, regional strategies, policies and practices. It can be argued that most of this information is accessible at the community/regional level, and thus, the important challenges to adaptation are not information gaps, but constraints created by fragmented planning decisions and a sector-by-sector basis for financial and human resource allocations. To strategically address this through adaptation planning, we developed and tested a place-based decision-making framework that creates an integrated platform for considering regional and global sectoral drivers in Eastern Ontario, Canada. Using available socioeconomic and biophysical information from regional authorities, alternative future scenarios were used to describe the range of socioeconomic futures and their vulnerabilities to climate change. We found that: (1) integration of diverse sets of available data (rather than narrowly focused sectoral assessments) helped identify shared common objectives (maximizing the long-term environmental, economic, social well-being within the region), (2) a high degree of congruence existed as the key drivers of change, irrespective of sector, (3) exploring the future scenarios highlighted shared regional priorities and helped identify adaptation priorities requiring more integrated regional planning.

show abstract

Perspectives and Methods in the Development of Technological Tools for Supporting Future Studies in Science and Technology

Pasquale¹,

Padula²

2015

Current Trends in Web Engineering

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Tailor-made scenario planning for local adaptation to climate change

Cited by 51 publications

References 32 publications

Planning for future sea-level rise in Swedish municipalities

Planning for future sea-level rise in Swedish municipalities

An integrated decision-support process for adaptation planning: climate change as impetus for scenario planning in an agricultural region of Canada

Perspectives and Methods in the Development of Technological Tools for Supporting Future Studies in Science and Technology

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About