Tail risk of coal futures in China's market

Abstract

China has been performing a significant role in the world's energy market, and the coal sector is a dominant part of China's energy market. According to the China Statistical Yearbook 2020 compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics, the total domestic primary energy production and consumption (10,000 tce) by 2019 are 397,000 and 487,000, while raw coal accounts for 68.6% and 57.7%, respectively. Therefore, appraising the Chinese coal market and providing implications to the market participants and policymakers are of great importance.The main feature of China's coal market is price fluctuation, which drives a speculative and risky market. Various factors contribute to the volatility of coal prices. One of the essential factors is China's supply-side reforms in the coal sector that reduce overcapacity, which requires the phase-out of enormous amounts of backward production capacity starting from 2016, resulting in a sharp decline in coal supply and a surge in coal futures. Another vital issue is importing. For instance, Indonesia, which supplies over 60% of China's coal, declared a ban on coal exports in January 2022, triggering a price spike in China's thermal coal futures.