Tactical Risk Assessment Method for Resilient Fuel Supply Chains for a Military Peacekeeping Operation

Abstract

The article focuses on research on the functioning of liquid fuel supply chains, supplying troops carrying out peacekeeping and stabilisation operations in a foreign territory. Timely and complete supplies of fuels in war conditions determine the achievement of the assumed goals of a military operation. They often determine the health and life of soldiers. For this reason, the role of building the resilience of supply chains to disruptions, the type and frequency of which is entirely different from the undesirable events occurring in civil goods flows, is increasing. Therefore, the critical concept supporting building the resilience of fuel supply chains is risk management in these chains. The authors have developed a risk analysis method that integrates the Kaplan and Garrick approach and the fuzzy theory. The analysis identifies the existing disturbances and assigns them to the individual phases of the supply process. To illustrate the applicability of the proposed method, the authors analyse nine scenarios for the three most important stages of the procurement process in terms of building the resilience of the entire chain: Planning, delivery and storage. The fuzzy theory estimates the risk level for the analysed scenarios of adverse events. The proposed method is universal. It can be implemented to analyse the resistance of supply chains of other materials. It can also support the decision-making process for those responsible for planning, organisation and proper functioning of supply systems in all high-risk conditions, not only in the zone of war and stabilisation operations.

Toward Defense Supply Chain Disruption Management: A Research Agenda for Defense Supply Chain Resilience

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“…• Wartime and operational conditions are volatile, and conflicts can break out anywhere, without (much) warning, meaning that the nature or pace of demand for equipment can change suddenly and rapidly; the uniqueness of these conditions also makes it difficult to use them for the extrapolation of future vulnerabilities (Ryczynski and Tubis, 2021). • Defense supply chains, particularly during instances of combat, are more likely to be the subject of a targeted attack than most commercial supply chains (Zhao et al, 2011).…”

A comprehensive risk prediction method for defense mission planning based on probabilistic reasoning and hierarchical analysis

“…Song et al proposed a program based on the task derivation by establishing a program index system under the background of the joint task risk analysis model [13] . Ryczyski et al proposed a risk analysis technique integrating the Kaplan method, the Garrick method, and fuzzy theory to realize the risk management decision-making in the liquid fuel material supply program during military operations [14] . Kim et al introduced the Risk Management Framework (RMF) and developed an assessment model of the weapon system, which offers a theoretical foundation for the mission plan formulation [15] .…”

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