Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) infections result in chronic virus replication and progressive depletion of CD4þ T cells, leading to immunodeficiency and death. In contrast, 'natural hosts' of SIV experience persistent infection with high virus replication but no severe CD4þ T cell depletion, and remain AIDS-free. One important difference between pathogenic and non-pathogenic infections is the level of activation and proliferation of CD4þ T cells. We analysed the relationship between CD4þ T cell number and proliferation in HIV, pathogenic SIV in macaques, and non-pathogenic SIV in sooty mangabeys (SMs) and mandrills. We found that CD4þ T cell proliferation was negatively correlated with CD4þ T cell number, suggesting that animals respond to the loss of CD4þ T cells by increasing the proliferation of remaining cells. However, the level of proliferation seen in pathogenic infections (SIV in rhesus macaques and HIV) was much greater than in non-pathogenic infections (SMs and mandrills). We then used a modelling approach to understand how the host proliferative response to CD4þ T cell depletion may impact the outcome of infection. This modelling demonstrates that the rapid proliferation of CD4þ T cells in humans and macaques associated with low CD4þ T cell levels can act to 'fuel the fire' of infection by providing more proliferating cells for infection. Natural host species, on the other hand, have limited proliferation of CD4þ T cells at low CD4þ T cell levels, which allows them to restrict the number of proliferating cells susceptible to infection.