Systemic Interventions in Sweden: Some Discernible Patterns

Olsson, Mats-Olov; Sjöstedt, Gunnar

doi:10.1007/1-4020-2370-7_16

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…The use of agent‐based modeling (ABM) to examine decision‐making under conditions of uncertainty has been widely practiced, as evidenced by prior studies (Eckles & Wise, 2011; Olsson, 2005). Similarly, ABMs have been successfully applied to analyze flood risk models (Dawson et al., 2011; Jenkins et al., 2017).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating irrational behavior into flood risk models to test the outcomes of policy interventions

Geaves,

Hall,

Penning‐Rowsell OBE

2023

Risk Analysis

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Householders are increasingly responsible for managing residual flood risk at property level. Yet, consumers are observed to adopt irrational behaviors under scenarios of risk, often making suboptimal decisions. Therefore, the question is raised, if householders are required to manage flood risk at household level, how can this be made fair and efficient? Policy instruments often incorporate “fairness” by subsidizing the costs of mitigation options, assuming a linear relationship between available finances and the uptake of risk mitigation measures. To integrate behavior into the assessment of policy instruments, this article develops a method to compare the uptake of flood mitigation between agents following models of Expected Monetary Value (EMV) and Prospect Theory (PT). An agent‐based model is created, offering the option to apply either EMV or PT frameworks. EMV represents a rational gamble, determining whether an agent “should” invest in insurance or property‐level protection. On the other hand, the PT option incorporates behavioral aspects to examine how agents are likely to respond to investment decisions in flood risk environments. The models are applied to Flood Re, a policy aimed at ensuring affordable insurance access for all individuals in flood risk areas. The results demonstrate that PT models exhibit greater similarity to observed behavior compared to models based on EMV. These findings emphasize the importance of accommodating “irrational” behaviors within the design of policy instruments, promoting fairness and efficiency. Overall, this research provides insights into the integration of behavior in policy assessments and highlights the benefits of considering PT frameworks alongside traditional rational models. By understanding and accounting for human behavior in decision‐making processes, policymakers can design more effective and equitable policy instruments for managing flood risk.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating irrational behavior into flood risk models to test the outcomes of policy interventions

Geaves,

Hall,

Penning‐Rowsell OBE

2023

Risk Analysis

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“…The commission to produce the Swedish Public Health Policy Report 2010 involved investigation of many complex aspects with a dynamic nature, long time perspectives, system boundaries that are not self-evident, goals that are not clearly defined, and certain important factors that are not quantifiable. As such, a specific methodology, known as the decision-maker-oriented systems analysis [8, 9], was employed in producing the report. This method is specifically adapted for investigations of a similarly complex nature as the current report.…”

Section: Chapter 1 Introduction and Description Of The Commissionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Swedish National Public Health Policy Report 2010

Linell¹,

Richardson²,

Wamala³

2013

Scand J Public Health

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Public health trends have generally been stable or positive, although health inequalities persist. Economic analyses demonstrate that ill-health in Sweden costs 12 billion SEK every year, yet a large amount of this ill-health can be prevented. Sixty-eight recommendations were presented in the report. The government's response to recommendations has been very positive; approximately 60% of the recommendations in the three strategic areas have been adopted less than two years after the Public Health Policy Report 2010 was published.

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