Systemic Financial Risk Early Warning System Based on House Price Fluctuation Factor

Abstract

In today's economic globalization, financial security is threatened by a variety of risk factors, of which the real estate market is a particularly important factor in these risk factors. This paper selects asset bubble risk index, macroeconomic risk indicator, currency market risk indicator and foreign exchange market risk indicator to establish a systemic financial risk early warning indicator system based on housing price fluctuation risk factor. The study found that the average annual sales growth rate of commercial housing and the real effective exchange rate are positively correlated with the probability of financial crisis; GDP growth rate, CPI year-on-year growth rate, M2 growth rate, export growth rate are negative related with the probability of financial crisis. 1