2005
DOI: 10.3386/w11076
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Systemic Crises and Growth

Abstract: In this paper, we document the fact that countries that have experienced occasional financial crises have on average grown faster than countries with stable financial conditions. We measure the incidence of crisis with the skewness of credit growth, and find that it has a robust negative effect on GDP growth. This link coexists with the negative link between variance and growth typically found in the literature.To explain the link between crises and growth we present a model where weak institutions lead to sev… Show more

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Cited by 80 publications
(90 citation statements)
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“…This result is consistent with recent models (e.g. Schneider and Tornell, 2004;Ranciere et al, 2008) showing that countries with intermediate levels of institutional quality that are characterized by limited contract enforcement and bailout guarantees are more likely to experience sudden stops. Aghion et al, (2004) present a model showing that countries with intermediate levels of financial development experience the most instability as a result of financial liberalization.…”
Section: Introductionsupporting
confidence: 92%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…This result is consistent with recent models (e.g. Schneider and Tornell, 2004;Ranciere et al, 2008) showing that countries with intermediate levels of institutional quality that are characterized by limited contract enforcement and bailout guarantees are more likely to experience sudden stops. Aghion et al, (2004) present a model showing that countries with intermediate levels of financial development experience the most instability as a result of financial liberalization.…”
Section: Introductionsupporting
confidence: 92%
“…Honig (2008a) finds that countries with moderate levels of institutional quality experience more frequent recessionary sudden stops. Ranciere et al (2008) find that the link between negative credit skewness and growth is strongest in the set of financially liberalized countries with a medium degree of contract enforceability.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 82%
“…Odedokun (2003) however finds a positive impact of financial sector development on all capital flows, including FDI. Some of the contradictory results may have been triggered by the fact that financial development promotes growth, but also makes a country more crisis-prone (Ranciere et al, 2008).…”
Section: Financial Developmentmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Rancière, Tornell, and Westermann (), Levchenko, Rancière, and Thoenig (), and Bruno and Hauswald ().…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%