Systematic Modeling and Policy Analysis on the Urban Water–Energy Nexus for Sustainable Resources Management

Abstract

Urbanization in developing countries has imposed great pressure on the availability of water and energy (WE) resources, while single-sector strategies may cause several unanticipated consequences. To find sustainable solutions for resource management, this study develops an integrated approach to assess urban WE from a nexus perspective. With the city Shenzhen as a case study, the existing WE nexus on the supply and demand sides of urban areas is first quantified. Subsequently, a system dynamics model (SDM) is constructed to reveal the complex interactions in the urban nexus, and the trends of WE supply and demand by 2035 are simulated. To narrow the potential resources gap, a policy analysis considering the interest and influence of various stakeholders is conducted to formulate policy scenarios. As revealed from the results, the resources gap will expand continuously by 2035, especially for water resources. Compared to the demand side, the policies implemented on the supply side exhibit a better performance, and the scenario of import expansion could independently achieve the desirable result. Moreover, as the demand side displayed more complexities, the implementation of future policies should rigorously weigh the priorities and difficulties of a range of stakeholders’ involvements.