Systematic food-borne disease prevention and risk management based upon infection mechanism

Abstract

A dynamic system with 3 levels of risk management is developed to prevent the spreading of food-borne disease among populations with consideration of the secondary infection. Compare the effect of factors such as information quality, time-delay and periodic factor. It shows that infection mechanism increases the severity of the epidemic manifested by larger number of dormant and visible population at each stage. The risks of the susceptible and exposed populations are significantly magnified in the course of infection mechanism which promotes the probability of transform of dormant population into visible diseased population. The infection mechanism reduces the risk of the diseased population. The increase of the time-delay and periodic factor increases the risk of food-borne disease, while the increase of information quality reduces the risk. Curbing the infectiousness, reducing information delay time and cycle time, improving information quality, the prevalence of food-borne disease can be controlled or prevented.