System Dynamics Approach for Evaluating Existing and Future Water Allocation Planning Among Conflicting Users

Abstract

Abstract. Water shortages are a chronic and severe problem in South Africa. Allocation of this limited water resources, environmental quality, and policies for sustainable water use are issues of increasing concern that require accurate and timely information to evolve strategies for dynamic natural resources management. Specifically, this paper is aimed to assist the planning, restoring and to rationally allocate the water resources in any river basin in resolving the current water stresses in many parts of South Africa, by using integrated knowledge from simulation and integrated river basin management approach. The developed system dynamic (SD) allocation system was used to investigates the extent to which the framework is ‘sustainable’ in the medium and long terms in evaluating existing and future water allocation among conflicting users at Mkomazi River Basin (MRB), KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa The invented SD framework confirms agricultural water use as the highest demand when compared with other users. The optimal sustainability performance index (0.25) of the system at 70% dependable flow shows an integrated scenario that combines rainfall variation with improved irrigation water use efficiency as a suitable framework plan. The study uses integrated knowledge from simulation and integrated river basin management approach as a feasible method to assist the planning, restoring and to rationally allocate the water resources in any river basin with similar attributes to the study area in resolving the current water stresses in many parts of the country. Water resources managers would find these tools beneficial in understanding the complex nature of water resources allocation and in determining priorities area which required prompt attention and intervention.