System Dynamics Analysis of the Determinants of the Malaysian Palm Oil Price

Mohammadi, Sahra; Arshad, Fatimah Mohamed; Bala, B. K.; Ibragimov, Abdulla

doi:10.3844/ajassp.2015.355.362

Cited by 16 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…To minimize the negative shock or price variations, there is a need to monitor these variables closely and make informed forecast of the likely future trends of the raw materials price. Based on the understanding of the relationships of these variables, the industry should be able to address the price variability better (Mohammadi & Ibragimov, ). To achieve this goal, garments and raw materials prices are included in this research model (Figure ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling of supply chain of ready‐made garments in Bangladesh

et al. 2019

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Despite supply chain revolution of the past decades, garments industries in Bangladesh struggle with production and shipment delays. Modelling of supply chain of ready‐made garments in Bangladesh is a challenge in our socio‐economic conditions because supply chain of garments is constrained by the availability of raw material, cotton, yarn, fabrics, and transportation facility. This research presents a system dynamics model of supply chain of garments in Bangladesh that is structured with inventory adjustment and demand driven to provide the right quantity at the right time at the right place. Verbal description, causal loop diagram, and stock flow diagram are hypothesized to generate the observed behaviour of ready‐made garments. Sensitivity analysis and stability of the model have also been addressed. Also, the model has been simulated to address the issue of the raw materials price instability and the policy issue of local supply of all the fabrics as well as local supply of all the fabrics with no transportation delay.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling of supply chain of ready‐made garments in Bangladesh

et al. 2019

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“…Oleh sebab itu pemerintah melakukan kebijakan bea keluar terhadap ekspor CPO Indonesia. perubahan harga CPO karena porsi permintaan CPO untuk produksi biodiesel masih kecil (Mohammadi et al 2015).…”

Section: Simulasi Skenario Kebijakan Bea Keluarunclassified

Dinamika Kebijakan Pengembangan Biodiesel Berbahan Baku Kelapa Sawit Indonesia

Rambe

Kusnadi²,

Suharno³

2019

j.sos.ekon.pertan.

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Indonesia develops palm oil biodiesel driven by mandatory biodiesel which requires the use of biodiesel as a mixture of fuel oil by 30 percent. However, the development of the biodiesel can cause a trade off CPO for the production of biodiesel and palm cooking oil. The purpose of this study is to analyze the achievement of Indonesia's biodiesel production, and formulate policies for the development of the biodiesel industry with consideration of the balance of the food and non-food sectors. The data used are secondary data obtained from various related agencies such as the Central Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, BAPPEBTI, World Bank and other institutions related to this research which are analyzed by dynamic system models. The results of the analysis show that the development of Indonesian biodiesel has not been able to meet the level of the blending rate according to mandatory biodiesel. Efforts to increase the achievement of the blending rate level can be done by providing biodiesel subsidies. Export duty policy is also needed in an effort to maintain the stability of domestic CPO prices and the price of palm cooking oil. The export duty policy in accordance with Minister of Finance Regulation No. 136 of 2015 is more effectively implemented than Minister of Finance Regulation No. 140 of 2016. Keywords : blending rate, dynamic system, mandatory biodiesel, policy scenario

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“…Furthermore, most of the previous studies focus on the factors affecting the palm oil prices (Ab Rahman et al 2012;Asari et al 2011;Hassan & Balu 2016;Mohammadi et al 2015;). According to Ab Rahman et al ( 2012), the error-correction model result shows that the changes in the lagged crude palm oil future prices do effectively influence the changes in the spot price.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Crude Palm Oil Price Forecasting in Malaysia: An Econometric Approach

Khalid¹,

Hamidi

Thinagar

et al. 2018

JEM

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This paper aims to forecast the performance of crude palm oil price (CPO) in Malaysia by comparing several econometric forecasting techniques, namely Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with exogenous inputs (ARIMAX). Using monthly time series data spanning from 2008 to 2017, the main results revealed that ARIMAX model is the most accurate and the most efficient model as compared to ARDL and ARIMA in forecasting the crude palm oil price. The results also show that the spot price of palm oil is highly influenced by stock of palm oil, crude petroleum oil price and soybean oil price. The empirical findings provide some insights for decision making and policy implementations, including the formulation of strategies to help the industry in dealing with the price changes and thus enable the Malaysian palm oil industry to continue dominating the international market.

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System Dynamics Analysis of the Determinants of the Malaysian Palm Oil Price

Cited by 16 publications

References 7 publications

Modelling of supply chain of ready‐made garments in Bangladesh

Modelling of supply chain of ready‐made garments in Bangladesh

Dinamika Kebijakan Pengembangan Biodiesel Berbahan Baku Kelapa Sawit Indonesia

Crude Palm Oil Price Forecasting in Malaysia: An Econometric Approach

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