System dynamic modeling of conflicts within Turkey and between Turkey and her neighbors

Boz, Canahmet; Başoğlu, A. Nuri; Öner, M. Atilla

doi:10.1109/picmet.2001.952410

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…System dynamics (SD) is an effective method to use in dealing with supply chain dynamics problems. The system dynamics method was proposed by Forrester in 1958 and is currently widely used to study various problems of supply chains, including inventory management [18], international supply chain management [19], demand amplification [20], supply chain design [21], information visibility [22], etc. It was originally applied to the study of industrial product supply chains, and was later introduced by some scholars to the study of energy supply chains, such as biomass [23][24][25], natural gas [26,27], oil [28][29][30] and electricity [31,32].…”

Section: Research On System Dynamics In the Field Of Energy Supply Chainmentioning

confidence: 99%

Strategies for the Resilience of Power-Coal Supply Chains in Low-Carbon Energy Transition: A System Dynamics Model and Scenario Analysis of China up to 2060

Zhang

2023

Sustainability

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The global trends of coal phase-out in response to climate change are meeting obstacles in China, where a stable operation of power-coal supply chains remains essential. How to guarantee the resilience of these supply chains during the low-carbon transition becomes a critical issue. This study aims to recommend corresponding strategies by modelling and analysis. A system dynamics model was developed to analyze scenarios of China’s power-coal supply from 2021 to 2060. The results indicated that, firstly, the capacity redundancy of coal mines will increase from 1.13 to 1.32 before 2045, with the rising power-coal demand and its volatility, followed by a sharp decrease after that, in which demand falls in all scenarios. Secondly, increasing coal stock in each link can effectively reduce capacity redundancy of coal mines and imports during the period of rising demand, resulting in 250 million tons of coal mine capacity reduction, but will lead to an opposite result when demand falls. Finally, under high demand fluctuations, coal transport capacity will become a key constraint. It is recommended that China must improve the capacity redundancy of coal mines, coal stock, and coal transport in the near-term, as well as enhance long-term planning to carefully coordinate these factors during the whole process of low-carbon transition.

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Section: Research On System Dynamics In the Field Of Energy Supply Chainmentioning

confidence: 99%

Strategies for the Resilience of Power-Coal Supply Chains in Low-Carbon Energy Transition: A System Dynamics Model and Scenario Analysis of China up to 2060

Zhang

2023

Sustainability

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Modeling conflict : research methods, quantitative modeling, and lessons learned.

Rexroth¹,

Malczynski²,

Hendrickson³

et al. 2004

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This study investigates the factors that lead countries into conflict. Specifically, political, social and economic factors may offer insight as to how prone a country (or set of countries) may be for inter-country or intra-country conflict. Largely methodological in scope, this study examines the literature for quantitative models that address or attempt to model conflict both in the past, and for future insight. The analysis concentrates specifically on the system dynamics paradigm, not the political science mainstream approaches of econometrics and game theory. The application of this paradigm builds upon the most sophisticated attempt at modeling conflict as a result of system level interactions. This study presents the modeling efforts built on limited data and working literature paradigms, and recommendations for future attempts at modeling conflict. 3This page intentionally left blank 4 Acknowledgements:

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System dynamic modeling of conflicts within Turkey and between Turkey and her neighbors

Cited by 2 publications

References 0 publications

Strategies for the Resilience of Power-Coal Supply Chains in Low-Carbon Energy Transition: A System Dynamics Model and Scenario Analysis of China up to 2060

Strategies for the Resilience of Power-Coal Supply Chains in Low-Carbon Energy Transition: A System Dynamics Model and Scenario Analysis of China up to 2060

Modeling conflict : research methods, quantitative modeling, and lessons learned.

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