Synthetic Detections of Interstellar Objects with the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time

Abstract

The discovery of two interstellar objects passing through the solar system, 1I/‘Oumuamua and 2I/Borisov, implies that a galactic population exists with a spatial number density of order ∼0.1 au−3. The forthcoming Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) has been predicted to detect more asteroidal interstellar objects like 1I/‘Oumuamua. We apply recently developed methods to simulate a suite of galactic populations of interstellar objects with a range of assumed kinematics, albedos, and size–frequency distributions (SFDs). We incorporate these populations into the objectsInField algorithm, which simulates detections of moving objects by an arbitrary survey. We find that the LSST should detect between ∼0 and 70 asteroidal interstellar objects every year (assuming the implied number density), with sensitive dependence on the SFD slope and characteristic albedo of the host population. The apparent rate of motion on the sky—along with the associated trailing loss—appears to be the largest barrier to detecting interstellar objects. Specifically, a relatively large number of synthetic objects would be detectable by the LSST if not for their rapid sky motion (>0.°5 day−1). Therefore, algorithms that could successfully link and detect rapidly moving objects would significantly increase the number of interstellar object discoveries with the LSST (and in general). The mean diameter of detectable, inactive interstellar objects ranges from ∼50 to 600 m and depends sensitively on the SFD slope and albedo.