We overview problems and prospects in ocean circulation models, with emphasis on certain developments aiming to enhance the physical integrity and flexibility of large-scale models used to study global climate. We also consider elements of observational measures rendering information to help evaluate simulations and to guide development priorities.
SCOPE OF THIS PAPERNumerical ocean circulation models support oceanography and climate science by providing tools to mechanistically interpret ocean observations, to experimentally investigate hypotheses for ocean phenemona, to consider future scenarios such as those associated with human-induced climate warming, and to forecast ocean conditions on weekly to decadal time scales using dynamical modeling systems. We anticipate that the already significant role models play in ocean and climate science will increase in prominence as models improve, observational datasets grow, and the impacts of climate change become more tangible.The Ocean Obs 2009 workshop focused on developing a framework for designing and sustaining world ocean observing and information systems that support societal needs concerning ocean weather, climate, ecosystems, carbon and chemistry. Many of the Community White Papers contributed to Ocean Obs 2009 directly discuss topics where ocean models play a central role in generating information, in conjunction with observations, appropriate for ocean forecasting/prediction, state estimation, data assimilation, sensitivity analysis, and other forms of ocean information on both short (days) and long (decades to centuries) time scales ( [1-9]). The central purpose of the present paper is to highlight important research that forms the scientific basis for ocean circulation models and their continued evolution. We provide examples and recommendations where observations support the evolution of ocean models. The above listed White Papers, those from [10] and [11], and others, provide further discussions and recommendations of measurements that support the development and use of ocean models.
OCEAN MODELS AND MODELINGThe ocean is a forced-dissipative system, with forcing largely at the boundaries and dissipation at the molecular scale. It is contained by complex land-sea boundaries with motions also constrained by rotation and stratification. Flow exhibits boundary currents, large-scale gyres and jets, boundary layers, linear and nonlinear waves, and quasi-geostrophic and three dimensional turbulence. Water mass tracer properties are preserved over thousands of mesoscale eddy turnover time scales. These characteristics of the ocean circulation pose significant difficulties for simulations. Indeed, ocean climate modeling is an application of a very different nature to those found in other areas of computational fluid dynamics (CFD). The time-scales of interest are decades to millennia, yet simulations require resolution or parameterization of phenomena whose time scales are minutes to hours. Furthermore, the most energetic spatial scales are of order 10 k...