Synoptic Situations of Extreme Hourly Precipitation over China

Luo, Yali; Wu, Meng‐Wen; Ren, Fumin; Jian, Li; Wong, W.C.

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0057.1

Cited by 161 publications

(162 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Climate change is making rainfall extremes less predictable and more uncertain in space and time. The changing properties of these events along with their driving forces are not well understood, even now (Groisman et al, 2005;Min et al, 2011;Luo et al, 2016). Although many scientists have sought to examine rainfall extremes across different regions (Tao and Ding, 1981;Karl and Fowler and Kilsby, 2003;Goswami et al, 2006;Chen et al, 2007;Yu and Li, 2012;Ma et al, 2015;She et al, 2015;Wu et al, 2016), their conclusions can vary with the characteristics of the study region, methodology used and data availability (Easterling et al, 2000;Lenderink et al, 2011;He et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterization of rainstorm modes along the upper mainstream of Yangtze River during 2003–2016

Guo

Liu

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Accurate knowledge of extrveme rainfall mode (time distribution) is crucial for many fields, such as hydraulic structure design, flood control and reservoir operation. The rainstorm modes along the upper mainstream of Yangtze River (UMYR) during 2003–2016 were investigated by fuzzy mode identification method, linear regression and Mann–Kendall test. Results show that unimodal rainstorms are more frequently seen than bimodal ones, and those with late peaks are dominant along UMYR. Moreover, rainstorms tend to centre on downstream UMYR. Trend analysis reveals moderate decreases in regional mean rainstorm frequency and amount, but an increase in regional mean peak intensity. Unimodal rainstorms with early peaks and bimodal rainstorms with early and late peaks have increased significantly. However, unimodal rainstorms with late peaks and bimodal rainstorms with middle and late peaks show decreases. Spatially, decreases in rainstorm frequency, amount and peak intensity are found in downstream, while peak intensity shows an increasing trend in the upper UMYR. Along the river reach, mean rainstorm levels are generally below 100 mm. In comparison to bimodal rainstorms, unimodal rainstorms are more intense, and those with middle peaks are considered most intense with mean levels of peak intensity generally ranging from 25 to 50 mm h−1. For other rainstorm modes, the mean levels of peak intensity are generally below 25 mm h−1. Finally, we found there is a potential change in the dominant rainstorm mode in downstream UMYR, where unimodal rainstorms with early peaks have become the prevalent local rainstorm mode in recent years, replacing unimodal rainstorms with late peaks.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterization of rainstorm modes along the upper mainstream of Yangtze River during 2003–2016

Guo

Liu

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Subregional differences of variability of seasonal precipitation are also notable because of the complex geography and extensive range of the country. Many weather systems can bring extreme precipitation to China (Luo et al 2016), including tropical cyclones, surface fronts, vortex/shear lines, and other small-scale synoptic systems. Disastrous extreme precipitation events occasionally occur across the country due to these stochastic weather phenomena.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential Predictability of Seasonal Extreme Precipitation Accumulation in China

Wei

Zeng

Jones

2017

Journal of Hydrometeorology

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The potential predictability of seasonal extreme precipitation accumulation (SEPA) across mainland China is evaluated, based on daily precipitation observations during 1960-2013 at 675 stations. The potential predictability value (PPV) of SEPA is calculated for each station by decomposing the observed SEPA variance into a part associated with stochastic daily rainfall variability and another part associated with longer-timescale climate processes. A Markov chain model is constructed for each station and a Monte Carlo simulation is applied to estimate the stochastic part of the variance. The results suggest that there are more potentially predictable regions for summer than for the other seasons, especially over southern China, the Yangtze River valley, the north China plain, and northwestern China. There are also regions of large PPVs in southern China for autumn and winter and in northwestern China for spring. The SEPA series for the regions of large PPVs are deemed not entirely stochastic, either with long-term trends (e.g., increasing trends in inland northwestern China) or significant correlation with well-known large-scale climate processes (e.g., East Asian winter monsoon for southern China in winter and El Niño for the Yangtze River valley in summer). This fact not only verifies the claim that the regions have potential predictability but also facilitates predictive studies of the regional extreme precipitation associated with large-scale climate processes.

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“…Understanding the relationships between multi-scale meteorological conditions and heavy rainfalls is critical to accurate rainfall forecast. As such, the influences of synoptic pattern on the initiation and development of precipitation in the NCP have been extensively investigated, and four kinds of synoptic conditions associated with heavy precipitation were documented Luo et al, 2016). The first kind is featured by a steady meridional circulation system prevailing over the NCP, with a high-pressure to the east and a low-pressure to the west (EH-WL) at the surface level (Ding et al, 1980;Tao, 1980).…”

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confidence: 99%

“…The first kind is featured by a steady meridional circulation system prevailing over the NCP, with a high-pressure to the east and a low-pressure to the west (EH-WL) at the surface level (Ding et al, 1980;Tao, 1980). The second one is characterized by a low-level vortex in the NCP, such as the northeast cold vortex, the southwest vortex, or a quasi east-westoriented shear line at 850 hPa (Ding et al, 1980;Tao, 1980;Sun et al, 2005;Sun et al, 2015;Luo et al, 2016). The third one is associated with a synoptic-scale front in NCP, which usually corresponds to a trough oriented from northeast to southwest (Ding et al, 1980;Luo et al, 2016).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The second one is characterized by a low-level vortex in the NCP, such as the northeast cold vortex, the southwest vortex, or a quasi east-westoriented shear line at 850 hPa (Ding et al, 1980;Tao, 1980;Sun et al, 2005;Sun et al, 2015;Luo et al, 2016). The third one is associated with a synoptic-scale front in NCP, which usually corresponds to a trough oriented from northeast to southwest (Ding et al, 1980;Luo et al, 2016). The last one is featured by the interaction of two systems induced by typhoon and low-level vortex (Ding et al, 1980).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Synoptic patterns and sounding‐derived parameters associated with summertime heavy rainfall in Beijing

Yan

Miao

Guo

et al. 2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Heavy precipitation in Beijing is modulated by both synoptic forcings and local thermodynamic characteristics of troposphere, which has yet to be well known. This study investigated the large‐scale synoptic patterns and local sounding features associated with the summertime heavy precipitation in Beijing, based on long‐term surface meteorological observations, radiosonde measurements, in combination of reanalysis data from 2008 to 2017. The results show that the heavy rainfall occurs more frequently in late July, which is associated with the movement of subtropical anticyclone. The sounding parameters during the heavy rainfall days are examined as well. It is found that the heavy rainfall is often related to favourable convective conditions characterized by abundant water vapour and high unstable energy. The soundings for around 45% of heavy rainfall days in Beijing exhibit the pattern of “thin tube” (TT), and those for ~25 and ~20% of heavy rainfall days show the patterns of “loaded gun” (LG) and “inverted V” (IV), respectively. On average, the rainfall amount of TT is 55.8 mm/day, which is ~3 mm/day (~15 mm/day) higher than that of LG (IV). The more frequent and heavier rainfall observed for TT pattern is due to the high values of precipitable water and wind shear. On the large scale, three dominant synoptic patterns associated with heavy rainfall in Beijing have been identified using the T‐mode principle component analysis. These synoptic patterns are all characterized by prevailing southerly winds within the lower troposphere, resulting in water vapours being easily transported from southern regions to Beijing, which in turn favours the occurrence of heavy precipitation. These dominant synoptic patterns and thermodynamic characteristics associated with the heavy rainfall in Beijing revealed in this study have important implications for better understanding of heavy rainfall in the North China Plain.

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Synoptic Situations of Extreme Hourly Precipitation over China

Cited by 161 publications

References 39 publications

Characterization of rainstorm modes along the upper mainstream of Yangtze River during 2003–2016

Characterization of rainstorm modes along the upper mainstream of Yangtze River during 2003–2016

Potential Predictability of Seasonal Extreme Precipitation Accumulation in China

Synoptic patterns and sounding‐derived parameters associated with summertime heavy rainfall in Beijing

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