Synoptic environment, mesoscale configurations and forecast parameters for hailstorms in Southwestern Europe

Merino, Andrés; García‐Ortega, Eduardo; López, Laura Marcela Vásquez; Sánchez, José Luis; Guerrero-Higueras, Angel-M.

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.10.021

Cited by 44 publications

(55 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…techniques, we can create a prediction tool that complements the synoptic and mesoscale cluster analyses of García-Ortega et al (2011) and Merino et al (2013) toward predicting both the probability and distribution of hailstorms in the MEV.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These clusters are characterized according to whether their components are similar to each other or different from components in other groups. This approach is widely used in meteorological studies to establish synoptic (Straus, 2010;García-Ortega et al, 2012), mesoscale (Merino et al, 2013(Merino et al, , 2014 or thermodynamic (Tudurí and Ramis, 1997) patterns, to define a particular spatial distribution and explain certain behaviors of a weather event.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This region is characterized by a high frequency of such storms, more than 60 days annually between May and September (Merino et al, 2013). Since 1997, the Atmospheric Physics Group (GFA) of the University of León has been researching tools to assist in the prediction of severe storms, especially hailstorms.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A key tool used in recent years by many researchers to avoid the drawbacks of radiosondes (Steinheimer, 2007;Litta et al, 2012;Merino et al, 2013) is the numerical model, because it can forecast vertical profiles at each grid point in a given area with the desired spatiotemporal resolution.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Authors such as Sánchez et al (1998aSánchez et al ( , 1998bSánchez et al ( , 2000, López et al (2007) and Merino et al (2015) have used binary logistic regression to create these tools, using sounding or satellite data. García-Ortega et al (2011) and Merino et al (2013) used cluster analysis to classify synoptic and mesoscale patterns, respectively, that determine the distribution of severe hailstorms in the MEV, using data from numerical models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Spatial distribution of thermodynamic conditions of severe storms in southwestern Europe

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatial distribution of thermodynamic conditions of severe storms in southwestern Europe

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Merino

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et al. 2015

Atmospheric Research

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Anomalies, trends and variability in atmospheric fields related to hailstorms in north‐eastern Spain

García‐Ortega

Hermida

Hierro

et al. 2014

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Hailstorms have become a serious meteorological risk in mid-latitude countries because of their small-scale development and short time span, and their forecasting remains problematic. Moreover, the lack of reliable hailstorm databases is an important handicap for Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model validation, time trend studies and establishment of hailstorm relationships with global warming and climate change. However, this can be overcome by ascertaining physical relationships between favourable synoptic patterns and mesoscale trigger factors for hailstorm development in a local study area.North-eastern Spain is one of the European regions with largest number of hailstorm days (HD) observed in the summer. Since 2001, from May through September, reliable databases of hailstorm occurrence in the middle Ebro Valley have been constructed, which include intensity, temporal frequency and spatial coordinate data. June and July 2006 had the largest number of HD in 2001-2010. With the objective of analysing meteorological factors responsible for this anomaly, atmospheric patterns at low and mid-tropospheric levels were studied. We determined a set of special synoptic configurations, with an evident deviation from climatic values generating anomalies of 850 hPa temperature relative to the characteristic values of 2001-2010 and 1950-2010. An analysis of these anomalies detected a positive trend of 850 hPa temperature and geopotential height in the western Mediterranean area. As a consequence, the characteristic synoptic circulation has changed since 1950, towards low-level patterns favouring adequate thermodynamic environments for hailstorm development in north-eastern Spain. Finally, after a cluster analysis, we studied periodicities in the monthly 850 hPa temperature field to improve knowledge for seasonal forecasting of hailstorms.

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Temporal continuity of extreme precipitation events using sub‐daily precipitation: application to floods in the Ebro basin, northeastern Spain

Merino

Fernández‐González

García‐Ortega

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Extreme precipitation events have been studied widely in various regions because of their implications for hazard assessment and risk management, particularly those of a hydrologic nature. Extreme precipitation events have been commonly defined using daily precipitation series owing to a lack of long‐term data at higher temporal resolution. However, because of their potentially dramatic consequences, intense sub‐daily precipitation is of great importance for risk assessment. Here, we define a new concept of extreme precipitation event based on temporal continuity of that event through run analysis using hourly precipitation. The aim of this definition is to record intense precipitation events over a very short period as well as very persistent rainfall events that produce heavy accumulated precipitation over several days. Both types of event can present considerable hydrologic hazards and are not considered in the definition of extreme precipitation event that is based on a daily time scale. We applied this method to the 29 greatest flood events in the Ebro River basin during 2000–2014 to determine whether our definition can be used to identify events producing hydrologic risks. In addition, we compared the synoptic patterns and trends of events defined using this method and those based on a daily time scale. The results show that the new definition allowed for identification of the 29 analysed flood events (as opposed to extreme events based on a daily time scale), among which eight events were not identified. Moreover, using the new definition facilitates establishment of synoptic patterns and more detailed study of trends by discriminating events according to their duration. The results reveal how the use of daily precipitation can hide trends of shorter events, because positive trends are more dominant in extreme precipitation events at sub‐daily scale.

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Synoptic environment, mesoscale configurations and forecast parameters for hailstorms in Southwestern Europe

Cited by 44 publications

References 36 publications

Spatial distribution of thermodynamic conditions of severe storms in southwestern Europe

Spatial distribution of thermodynamic conditions of severe storms in southwestern Europe

Anomalies, trends and variability in atmospheric fields related to hailstorms in north‐eastern Spain

Temporal continuity of extreme precipitation events using sub‐daily precipitation: application to floods in the Ebro basin, northeastern Spain

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