Synoptic dynamics of cold waves over north India: Underlying mechanisms of distinct cold wave conditions

Athira, K.S.; Attada, Raju; Rao, V. Brahmananda

doi:10.1016/j.wace.2024.100641

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…Both studies attributed their respective trends to decreasing WD frequency or intensity, but such interpretations must be treated with caution given the positive trend in background climatological temperatures. Athira et al (2024) also identified a significant decrease in coldwave frequency, duration, and intensity over north India.…”

Section: Changing Impactsmentioning

confidence: 91%

Comment on egusphere-2024-820

2024

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Section: Changing Impactsmentioning

confidence: 91%

Comment on egusphere-2024-820

2024

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“…The months of December and January are the months that see the highest incidence of cold wave events and the mortality that is associated with them is primarily observed in the northwest and central northeast regions of India [36] . During the northern winter, when the occurrence of western disturbances takes place, the general circulation tends to shift towards the equator [37] . A decreasing trend of minimum temperature is generally observed in the states of Odisha, Chhattisgarh, parts of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka which are also the regions where there is an increasing trend of cold wave events [37] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…During the northern winter, when the occurrence of western disturbances takes place, the general circulation tends to shift towards the equator [37] . A decreasing trend of minimum temperature is generally observed in the states of Odisha, Chhattisgarh, parts of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka which are also the regions where there is an increasing trend of cold wave events [37] . However, there are no studies related to cold waves, cold nights and warm nights during winter are not studied yet over the major metropolitan cities in India, although the land use, land cover and population density over these regions are changing rapidly.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Study of Cold Wave and Cold Stress in the Four Metropolitan Cities of India for the Period 1985–2020

Kumar,

Chakraborty,

Sharma

et al. 2024

j. of atmos. sci. res.

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Cold waves, cold nights and warm nights are major threats to human beings during winter due to climate change in different parts of India. The analysis of these has been studied for four major metropolitan cities (Chennai, Mumbai, Kolkata, and Delhi) of India during the period 1985–2020. The authors have used the 90th and 10th percentile threshold to identify the cold nights, warm nights and cold waves during the winter season. The degree of discomfort and cold stress category are identified using the Humidity Index (HD), and the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). The results indicate that the cold night event in Mumbai is ~0.36% higher than both Kolkata and Chennai cities but it is ~0.42% higher than Delhi. The number of cold wave events in Delhi is 53.5% higher than in Kolkata during the period of the study. It is also observed from the study of UTCI that the possibility of slight cold stress in the Delhi region during cold nights is 59.36% more than in other metropolitan cities. The study indicates that in the winter season, the climate of Delhi is more dynamic but for Kolkata it is relatively less dynamic.

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Increased projected changes in quasi-resonant amplification and persistent summer weather extremes in the latest multimodel climate projections

Guimarães,

Mann,

Rahmstorf

et al. 2024

Sci Rep

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High-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves with zonal wave numbers 6–8 associated with the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) have been linked to persistent summer extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere. QRA is not well-resolved in current generation climate models, therefore, necessitating an alternative approach to assessing their behavior. Using a previously-developed fingerprint-based semi-empirical approach, we project future occurrence of QRA events based on a QRA index derived from the zonally averaged surface temperature field, comparing results from CMIP 5 and 6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). There is a general agreement among models, with most simulations projecting substantial increase in QRA index. Larger increases are found among CMIP6-SSP5-8.5 (42 models, 46 realizations), with 85% of models displaying a positive trend, as compared with 60% of CMIP5-RCP8.5 (33 models, 75 realizations), with a reduced spread among CMIP6-SSP5-8.5 models. CMIP6-SSP3-7.0 (23 models, 26 realizations) simulations display qualitatively similar behavior to CMIP6-SSP5-8.5, indicating a substantial increase in QRA events under business-as-usual emissions scenarios, and the results hold regardless of the increase in climate sensitivity in CMIP6. Projected aerosol reductions in CMIP6-SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF (5 models, 16 realizations) lead to halting effect in QRA index and Arctic Amplification during the 1st half of the twenty-first century. Our analysis suggests that anthropogenic warming will likely lead to an even more substantial increase in QRA events (and associated summer weather extremes) than indicated by past analyses.

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Synoptic dynamics of cold waves over north India: Underlying mechanisms of distinct cold wave conditions

Cited by 4 publications

References 50 publications

Comment on egusphere-2024-820

Comment on egusphere-2024-820

Study of Cold Wave and Cold Stress in the Four Metropolitan Cities of India for the Period 1985–2020

Increased projected changes in quasi-resonant amplification and persistent summer weather extremes in the latest multimodel climate projections

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