Synoptic Climatology of Lake-Effect Snow Events off the Western Great Lakes

Wiley, Jake; Mercer, Andrew E.

doi:10.3390/cli9030043

Cited by 7 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…[20]) form during LES events. This was observed in [35] and [36] who found that, for a PBL thermodynamic profile conducive to LES formation, subtle variations in the surface dipole structure driven by deviations in the synoptic scale pattern led to varying LES snow band types and impacts.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 79%

“…Additionally, as the clipper propagates and matures, an anticyclone will typically build in its wake which creates a pressure dipole and tight isobaric gradient between the two pressure systems. As [35,36] note, in addition to strong flow, this dipole has also been linked with LES off the Great Lakes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 90%

“…Our study utilized a similar approach, adapting these criteria to National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Reanalysis data [47] that spans 11 meteorological winters (December-February) including 1997/98, 1998/99, and 2005/06 to 2013/2014. These specific time periods were selected to align with LES repositories in [35] and [36] which were used to categorize clippers as associated/disassociated with LES. Meteorological winter (December-February) was selected as the temporal domain for this study owing to the climatological frequency of clippers [37], and only 48 (16.5%) LES cases occurred outside the winter months.…”

Section: Alberta Clipper Repositorymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…), warm and moisten the PBL above the lake surface which results convective updraft formation and the eventual development of elongated snow bands over the lake surface that stretch inland into the lake's lee [18,[20][21][22][23][24][25]. While the mesoscale conditions linked with LES have been extensively investigated [26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34], studies characterizing the synoptic environments associated with LES remain limited, though contemporary studies are beginning to integrate updated analysis techniques to identify synoptic-scale structures underlying LES [35,36]. In our study, we will focus specifically on the role of the cyclone track (the Alberta Clipper (hereafter clipper)) that is most responsible for LES, and which synoptic conditions and processes associated with clippers are most influential to LES formation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous studies have outlined the following conditions as typical for a synoptic environment comprising Great Lakes LES [35,36,[44][45][46]:…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Structure and Evolution of Non-Lake-Effect Snow Producing Alberta Clippers

Wiley

Mercer

2021

Atmosphere

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Alberta Clippers (clippers) have long been associated with lake-effect snow (LES) events due to their frequent passage over the Great Lakes basin. However, not all clippers produce LES, and no research has inquired into which synoptic fields most influence LES formation. This study analyzes clippers during non-LES situations to further knowledge on which atmospheric variables most regulate LES development on the synoptic scale. As no such database currently exists, a clipper repository is developed using National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis data. The repository is then cross referenced with a previously developed LES repository to identify clippers responsible for LES. Composite synoptic-scale patterns were then constructed on the remaining non-LES clippers to identify synoptic conditions that ultimately inhibited LES formation. This analysis is supplemented by an assessment of lake surface conditions in each composite to evaluate how influential the lake characteristics were in the suppression of LES activity. In total, 51 non-LES clippers were identified, tracked, and separated into three composite map types that exhibited unique storm track and spatial characteristics. Permutation testing revealed that lake surface conditions were not significantly (p ≤ 0.05) different between LES and non-LES associated clippers implying the main LES inhibition factors were meteorological.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 79%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Section: Alberta Clipper Repositorymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous studies have outlined the following conditions as typical for a synoptic environment comprising Great Lakes LES [35,36,[44][45][46]:…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Structure and Evolution of Non-Lake-Effect Snow Producing Alberta Clippers

Wiley

Mercer

2021

Atmosphere

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Using the snow-day fraction to measure climatic change in southern Ontario (Canada): historical trends in winter season precipitation phase

Hewer

Gough

2022

Theor Appl Climatol

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Global temperatures are increasing, and regional precipitation patterns are changing. Snow is an excellent indicator of regional climate change; 50 years of temperature and precipitation data were analysed from weather stations located within the five most populated cities of Ontario (Canada). Recorded measurements for temperature and precipitation were converted into binary values to indicate the frequency of rain days, snow days, wet days (when total precipitation is greater than 0.2 mm) and freezing days (when the average temperature is less than 0 °C); then, these values were summed over each winter season from 1970/71 to 2019/20. The snow-day fraction was calculated from the seasonal totals by dividing the total number of snow days by the total number of wet days. Historical trends were detected using Pearson’s R, Kendall’s Tau and Spearman’s Rho. Differences in mean values between the first decade (1971–1980) and the last decade (2011–2020) within the time series for the snow-day fraction and total freezing days were determined using Student’s t-tests. During the winter season in southern Ontario (December 1 to March 31), total snow days, total wet days, the snow-day fraction and freezing days were all decreasing at statistically significant rates (90 to 99% confidence levels) across four of the five cities studied (Toronto, Ottawa, Hamilton and London). Mississauga was the exception, being the only city where rain days were increasing, but no trends were detected for snow days or wet days. The snow-day fraction was decreasing in Mississauga but not at a statistically significant rate, despite freezing days decreasing at the greatest rate compared to the other four cities. Total freezing days were highly correlated with the snow-day fraction during the winter season, being able to explain 61 to 76 percent of the observed variability, where Mississauga recorded the weakest correlation and London recorded the strongest correlation.

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How Could Future Climate Conditions Reshape a Devastating Lake‐Effect Snow Storm?

Kayastha,

Huang,

Wang

et al. 2024

Earth's Future

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Lake‐effect snow (LES) storms, characterized by heavy convective precipitation downwind of large lakes, pose significant coastal hazards with severe socioeconomic consequences in vulnerable areas. In this study, we investigate how devastating LES storms could evolve in the future by employing a storyline approach, using the LES storm that occurred over Buffalo, New York, in November 2022 as an example. Using a Pseudo‐Global Warming method with a fully three‐dimensional two‐way coupled lake‐land‐atmosphere modeling system at a cloud‐resolving 4 km resolution, we show a 14% increase in storm precipitation under the end‐century warming. This increase in precipitation is accompanied by a transition in the precipitation form from predominantly snowfall to nearly equal parts snowfall and rainfall. Through additional simulations with isolated atmospheric and lake warming, we discerned that the warmer lake contributes to increased storm precipitation through enhanced evaporation while the warmer atmosphere contributes to the increase in the storm's rainfall, at the expense of snowfall. More importantly, this shift from snowfall to rainfall was found to nearly double the area experiencing another winter hazard, Rain‐on‐Snow. Our study provides a plausible future storyline for the Buffalo LES storm, focusing on understanding the intricate interplay between atmospheric and lake warming in shaping the future dynamics of LES storms. It emphasizes the importance of accurately capturing the changing lake‐atmosphere dynamics during LES storms under future warming.

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Synoptic Climatology of Lake-Effect Snow Events off the Western Great Lakes

Cited by 7 publications

References 45 publications

Structure and Evolution of Non-Lake-Effect Snow Producing Alberta Clippers

Structure and Evolution of Non-Lake-Effect Snow Producing Alberta Clippers

Using the snow-day fraction to measure climatic change in southern Ontario (Canada): historical trends in winter season precipitation phase

How Could Future Climate Conditions Reshape a Devastating Lake‐Effect Snow Storm?

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