Synoptic and regional patterns of heavy precipitation in Austria

Seibert, Petra; Frank, A.; Formayer, Herbert

doi:10.1007/s00704-006-0198-8

Cited by 57 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Such synoptic meteorological situations are characterized by a low forming south of the Alps, subsequently moving to the north-east. The moisture taken up over the Mediterranean and Adriatic Sea is transported to eastern-central Europe, potentially causing heavy rainfalls in large parts of Austria (Seibert et al, 2007). Figure 3a, b show the daily and cumulative deviation of precipitation from the long-term mean covering 1 year before the landslide-triggering rainfall events in May 1999 and August 2005 for the region around the Laternser valley.…”

Section: Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity analysis and calibration of a dynamic physically based slope stability model

Zieher

Rutzinger

Schneider‐Muntau

et al. 2017

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Physically based modelling of slope stability on a catchment scale is still a challenging task. When applying a physically based model on such a scale (1 : 10 000 to 1 : 50 000), parameters with a high impact on the model result should be calibrated to account for (i) the spatial variability of parameter values, (ii) shortcomings of the selected model, (iii) uncertainties of laboratory tests and field measurements or (iv) parameters that cannot be derived experimentally or measured in the field (e.g. calibration constants). While systematic parameter calibration is a common task in hydrological modelling, this is rarely done using physically based slope stability models. In the present study a dynamic, physically based, coupled hydrological-geomechanical slope stability model is calibrated based on a limited number of laboratory tests and a detailed multitemporal shallow landslide inventory covering two landslide-triggering rainfall events in the Laternser valley, Vorarlberg (Austria). Sensitive parameters are identified based on a local one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis. These parameters (hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, angle of internal friction for effective stress, cohesion for effective stress) are systematically sampled and calibrated for a landslide-triggering rainfall event in August 2005. The identified model ensemble, including 25 "behavioural model runs" with the highest portion of correctly predicted landslides and non-landslides, is then validated with another landslide-triggering rainfall event in May 1999. The identified model ensemble correctly predicts the location and the supposed triggering timing of 73.0 % of the observed landslides triggered in August 2005 and 91.5 % of the observed landslides triggered in May 1999. Results of the model ensemble driven with raised precipitation input reveal a slight increase in areas potentially affected by slope failure. At the same time, the peak run-off increases more markedly, suggesting that precipitation intensities during the investigated landslide-triggering rainfall events were already close to or above the soil's infiltration capacity.

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Section: Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity analysis and calibration of a dynamic physically based slope stability model

Zieher

Rutzinger

Schneider‐Muntau

et al. 2017

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…This flood event was triggered by a socalled Vb-similar weather pattern (van Bebber, 1898) with prolonged intensive rainfall combined with already saturated soil leading to high discharges at many Tyrolean gauges (Amt der Tiroler Landesregierung, 2005) causing an estimated direct loss of EUR 410 m (with 61 % of the total loss in the private sector) in the entire federal state of Tyrol (Amt der Tiroler Landesregierung, 2006). Vb-weather situations are responsible for 12 % of heavy precipitation events in Austria (Seibert et al, 2007) causing frequently severe summer flooding in Europe (Mudelsee et al, 2004). Thereby a cyclone is developed south of the European Alps transporting relatively slowly a large amount of humidity from the Adriatic Sea in the northeast direction accompanied by large amounts of rainfall (van Bebber, 1898;Mudelsee et al, 2004;Seibert et al, 2007).…”

Section: Study Area and Flood Event In 2005mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Vb-weather situations are responsible for 12 % of heavy precipitation events in Austria (Seibert et al, 2007) causing frequently severe summer flooding in Europe (Mudelsee et al, 2004). Thereby a cyclone is developed south of the European Alps transporting relatively slowly a large amount of humidity from the Adriatic Sea in the northeast direction accompanied by large amounts of rainfall (van Bebber, 1898;Mudelsee et al, 2004;Seibert et al, 2007). In August 2005, several catchments in western Austria where affected by torrent processes with its associated sediment transport or geomorpholocial processes such as landslides (BMLFUW, 2006).…”

Section: Study Area and Flood Event In 2005mentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptability and transferability of flood loss functions in residential areas

Cammerer

Thieken

Lammel

2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

129

144

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Abstract. Flood loss modeling is an important component within flood risk assessments. Traditionally, stage-damage functions are used for the estimation of direct monetary damage to buildings. Although it is known that such functions are governed by large uncertainties, they are commonly applied -even in different geographical regions -without further validation, mainly due to the lack of real damage data. Until now, little research has been done to investigate the applicability and transferability of such damage models to other regions. In this study, the last severe flood event in the Austrian Lech Valley in 2005 was simulated to test the performance of various damage functions from different geographical regions in Central Europe for the residential sector. In addition to common stage-damage curves, new functions were derived from empirical flood loss data collected in the aftermath of recent flood events in neighboring Germany. Furthermore, a multi-parameter flood loss model for the residential sector was adapted to the study area and also evaluated with official damage data. The analysis reveals that flood loss functions derived from related and more similar regions perform considerably better than those from more heterogeneous data sets of different regions and flood events. While former loss functions estimate the observed damage well, the latter overestimate the reported loss clearly. To illustrate the effect of model choice on the resulting uncertainty of damage estimates, the current flood risk for residential areas was calculated. In the case of extreme events like the 300 yr flood, for example, the range of losses to residential buildings between the highest and the lowest estimates amounts to a factor of 18, in contrast to properly validated models with a factor of 2.3. Even if the risk analysis is only performed for residential areas, our results reveal evidently that a carefree model transfer in other geographical regions might be critical. Therefore, we conclude that loss models should at least be selected or derived from related regions with similar flood and building characteristics, as far as no model validation is possible. To further increase the general reliability of flood loss assessment in the future, more loss data and more comprehensive loss data for model development and validation are needed.

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“…2 (Carpathians and the Sudetes) and thereby produce prolonged, intense rainfalls (Niedźwiedź 2003a, b). Orography is a crucial precipitation-causing factor in all high mountain areas (Sénési et al 1996;Buzzi et al 1998;Massacand et al 1998;Buzzi and Foschini 2000;Ferretti et al 2000;Schneidereit and Schär 2000;Houze 2001;Rotunno and Ferretti 2001;Pradier et al 2004;Seibert et al 2007). Typical cyclonic circulation types with air advection from the northern sector, cyclonic centre or cyclonic trough have been declared responsible for the most severe precipitation-induced flood events in the region (Morawska-Horawska 1971;Niedźwiedź 2003a, b;Mudelsee et al 2004;Czekierda 2001, 2009) as well as in the wider areas of Central Europe (James et al 2004).…”

Section: Circulation Patterns and High Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variability of high rainfalls and related synoptic situations causing heavy floods at the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains

Niedźwiedź

Łupikasza

Pińskwar

et al. 2014

Theor Appl Climatol

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This contribution provides the basics of the climatology of the Polish Tatra Mountains in a nutshell, with particular reference to intense precipitation and its relation to atmospheric circulation. Variability of various precipitation characteristics, including selected indices of intense precipitation in Zakopane and at Kasprowy Wierch, is illustrated in this paper. None of the trends in these characteristics and indices calculated for the entire time interval exhibit a statistical significance, but short-time fluctuations are evident. The occurrence of intense precipitation in the Tatra Mountains is strongly related to three circulation types. These situations (Nc, NEc, Bc) are associated with cyclones following track Vb after van Bebber. In addition to changing frequencies of circulation, this study also reveals an increase in the frequency of the circulation types associated with extreme precipitation.

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Synoptic and regional patterns of heavy precipitation in Austria

Cited by 57 publications

References 8 publications

Sensitivity analysis and calibration of a dynamic physically based slope stability model

Sensitivity analysis and calibration of a dynamic physically based slope stability model

Adaptability and transferability of flood loss functions in residential areas

Variability of high rainfalls and related synoptic situations causing heavy floods at the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains

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