Synchronous cycles of domestic dog rabies in sub-Saharan Africa and the impact of control efforts

Abstract

Rabies is a fatal neurological pathogen that is a persistent problem throughout the developing world where it is spread primarily by domestic dogs. Although the disease has been extensively studied in wildlife populations in Europe and North America, the dynamics of rabies in domestic dog populations has been almost entirely neglected. Here, we demonstrate that rabies epidemics in southern and eastern Africa cycle with a period of 3-6 years and show significant synchrony across the region. The observed period is shorter than predictions based on epidemiological parameters for rabies in domestic dogs. We find evidence that rabies prevention measures, including vaccination, are affected by disease prevalence and show that a simple model with intervention responses can capture observed disease periodicity and host dynamics. We suggest that movement of infectious or latent animals combined with coordinated control responses may be important in coupling populations and generating synchrony at the continental scale. These findings have important implications for rabies prediction and control: large-scale synchrony and the importance of intervention responses suggest that control of canine rabies in Africa will require sustained efforts coordinated across political boundaries.disease dynamics ͉ epidemics ͉ infectious disease ͉ mathematical model ͉ vaccination

Transmission dynamics and economics of rabies control in dogs and humans in an African city

“…cost-effectiveness of different interventions in humans and animal hosts (13). The occurrence of rabies in short time intervals appears as a series of random events for which deterministic models are not always appropriate (4). ULs of exposed humans are wide, reflecting those of rabid dogs.…”

Modelling of Rabies Transmission Dynamics Using Optimal Control Analysis

“…Childs et al [18] also researched rabies epidemics in raccoons with a seasonal birth pulse, using optimal control of an SEIRS model which describes the population dynamics. Hampson et al [19] also noted that rabies epidemic cycles have a period of 3-6 years in dog populations in Africa, so they built a susceptible, exposed, infectious, and vaccinate model with an intervention response variable, which showed significant synchrony.…”

Structural aspects of rabies virus replication

“…Infection is mainly transferred to dogs and can be introduced into humans by bites of infected dogs. Although the spread of rabies infection is kept under control by vaccinating domestic animals and the wild fox population in Europe, such vaccination programs are lacking in most developing countries, contributing to the spread of the disease [6]. Because of the various bat reservoirs, rabies is unlikely to be eradicated, and control of terrestrial rabies is only feasible via vaccination of terrestrial animal reservoirs through immense cost and effort.…”