SWx TREC Deep Learning Laboratory: Advances in Machine Learning for Space Weather

Abstract

Space weather events can impact satellite communications, astronaut health, and the electric power grid. It is thus of utmost importance that we develop efficient, reliable tools to determine when space weather events, such as solar flares, will occur and how strong they will be. The SWx TREC Deep Learning Laboratory has developed several state-of-the-art machine learning projects to improve solar flare prediction through the use of deep learning models, generative adversarial network data augmentation, and explainable artificial intelligence techniques. In particular, we compared two generative adversarial networks (GANs) to super-resolve the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory's Michelson Doppler Imager (SOHO/MDI) magnetogram data to match the quality of the Solar Dynamics Observatory's Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (SDO/HMI) magnetogram data. We find that both GANs are able to preserve key features of the original SOHO/MDI magnetogram data while achieving better resolution to match the SDO/HMI data. In the future, we will use the combined, augmented dataset in a Long Short-Term Memory model for solar flare prediction to see if training on the expanded dataset results in improved predictive power compared to training on the SDO/HMI dataset alone. In addition to data augmentation, we have used Local Interpretable Model-Agnositc Explanations (LIME) on our existing solar flare prediction model to provide more insight into specific predictions. This is an important step in building trust in our model and understanding what features are driving the model's predictions. In this presentation, we will discuss these recent projects as well as future work that the SWx TREC Deep Learning Laboratory will tackle in order to advance the field of machine learning in space weather, including: improved hardware, better visualization capabilities, cutting edge models, software tools, and community resources.