Swings in commercial and residential land prices in the United States

Nichols, Joseph; Oliner, Stephen D.; Mulhall, Michael R.

doi:10.1016/j.jue.2012.06.004

Cited by 99 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…A direct measure of land prices addresses concerns that such residuals capture something other than land prices between 2000 and 2006. The land price data we use are the indices constructed by Nichols, Oliner, and Mulhall (). Using land transaction data, they regress prices on parcel characteristics and then construct city‐level indices from the coefficients on city‐specific time dummies.…”

Section: Stylized Facts Of the Us Housing Boom And Bustmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Gyourko and Saiz () provide further information on the survey. Land price changes come from the hedonic indices calculated in Nichols, Oliner, and Mulhall () using land parcel transactions, and house prices come from the second‐quarter FHFA housing price index deflated by the CPI‐U. The figure includes all metropolitan areas with populations over 500,000 in 2000 for which we have data.…”

Section: Stylized Facts Of the Us Housing Boom And Bustmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Arrested Development: Theory and Evidence of Supply‐Side Speculation in the Housing Market

Nathanson¹,

Zwick

2018

The Journal of Finance

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This paper studies the role of disagreement in amplifying housing cycles. Speculation is easier in the land market than in the housing market due to frictions that make renting less efficient than owner‐occupancy. As a result, undeveloped land facilitates construction and intensifies the speculation that causes booms and busts in house prices. This observation challenges the standard intuition that in cities where construction is easier, house price booms are smaller. It can also explain why the largest house price booms in the United States between 2000 and 2006 occurred in areas with elastic housing supply.

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Section: Stylized Facts Of the Us Housing Boom And Bustmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Stylized Facts Of the Us Housing Boom And Bustmentioning

confidence: 99%

Arrested Development: Theory and Evidence of Supply‐Side Speculation in the Housing Market

Nathanson¹,

Zwick

2018

The Journal of Finance

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“…Table reports results from regression models of volatility with regional control variables added to the models. Regional controls are expected to be important determinants of volatility, as prior studies have shown that house prices varied substantially across different areas of the country (Davis and Palumbo , Nichols, Oliner and Mulhall ) . Additionally, this serves as a test to determine whether the amenity variables maintain explanatory power after controlling for these fixed effects.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It has been well documented that house prices have varied substantially across different metropolitan areas over the past few decades (see for example, Davis and Palumbo , Nichols, Oliner and Mulhall ). However, recent studies have concluded that this variation does not appear to be adequately explained by many of the fundamental macroeconomic variables commonly suggested in the literature (Clark and Coggin ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Relation between Local Amenities and House Price Dynamics

Beracha

Gilbert

Kjorstad

et al. 2016

Real Estate Economics

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This study explores the extent to which local amenities are related to house price volatility, returns and risk‐adjusted returns across 238 MSAs. We find strong evidence that high amenity areas experience greater price volatility. In regards to returns, high amenity areas experience greater (lower) real returns in appreciating (depreciating) markets. However, high amenity areas experience little to no abnormal risk‐adjusted returns. Results from the study are robust to an endogenous treatment of amenities and land supply elasticity. Overall, we conclude that the desirability of a metropolitan area is a significant channel through which land values drive house price dynamics.

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“…With regard to the set of variables explaining land values, three dominant research approaches can be distinguished (Larson, 2015): the residual approach, as found in the work of Case (2007), Davis and Heathcote (2007), and Davis (2009); spatial analyses of transactions, as in Haughwout, Orr, and Bedoll (2008) and Nichols, Oliner, and Mulhall (2013); and hedonic methods, as in Diewert (2010) and de Haan, Diewert, and Hendriks (2011).…”

Section: Complexity Of Farmland Price Driversmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drivers for farmland value revisited: adapting the returns discount model (RDM) to the sustainable paradigm

Czyżewski

Kułyk

Kryszak

2019

Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja

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In recent studies many researchers have identified non-agricultural attributes of land that significantly contribute to its value. They claim that the increasing proportion of the value of land may now be explained by environmental amenities in rural areas. On the other hand, mainstream economics says that farmland values are determined by the discounted stream of returns (present value model). The main aim of this work was to adapt neoclassical concept of the Returns Discount Model (RDM) of Saphiro-Gordon type to the case of a land market in Poland. We introduced a modified RDM (i.e. the multilevel variance component model) to answer whether it remains applicable to the valuation of farmland in the context of sustainable agriculture. It was found that in spite of the growing role of non-productive functions of agriculture the improved RDM continues to perform well as a tool to assess changes in land prices.

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Swings in commercial and residential land prices in the United States

Cited by 99 publications

References 56 publications

Arrested Development: Theory and Evidence of Supply‐Side Speculation in the Housing Market

Arrested Development: Theory and Evidence of Supply‐Side Speculation in the Housing Market

On the Relation between Local Amenities and House Price Dynamics

Drivers for farmland value revisited: adapting the returns discount model (RDM) to the sustainable paradigm

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