Swimming against the tide: economic growth and demographic dividend in India

Joe, William; Kumar, Abhishek; Rajpal, Sunil

doi:10.1080/17441730.2018.1446379

Cited by 24 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Scholars have explored the demographic dividend using relevant models and empirically tested the results. For example, Joe et al (2018), using an econometric method and data from India, verified the economic growth benefits brought about by the country's proportional working-age population increase; the authors highlighted restrictive factors that need to be solved to achieve high growth from India's population potential. Groth et al (2019) discussed how Sub-Saharan Africa could obtain the demographic dividend.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

How does green talent influence China’s economic growth?

Song

Xie

2019

IJM

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of the green talent dividend on China’s economic growth and regional differences using a theoretical derivation of the Cobb–Douglas production function. Design/methodology/approach This study develops a measurement model with human capital based on Chinese inter-provincial panel data for 2001–2017, and analyzes the influences on economic growth of employees’ education level, per capita material capital, green labor participation rate and green jobs. The study explores the impact of the green talent dividend on regional economic growth for different regions. Findings Employees’ education level, per capita material capital, green labor participation rate and green jobs promote China’s economic growth. The dependency ratio hinders economic growth. The green labor participation rate impacts economic growth more than green jobs do. Furthermore, the scale of green talent in China and its dividend effect are regionally unbalanced. Therefore, to fully release the dividend of green talent, the green labor participation rate should be improved to promote the rational flow of talent among regions. Practical implications These findings shed light on the talent dividend, provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of relevant talent policies, and show that the demographic dividend can be transformed into the green talent dividend, which has practical significance for the sustainable development of China’s economy given its aging population. Originality/value This study provides a macro perspective on the green talent dividend’s impact on economic growth. The Cobb–Douglas production function in this study differs from the traditional micro perspective on green labor.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

How does green talent influence China’s economic growth?

Song

Xie

2019

IJM

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“…Kumar (2013) study found favourable demographic impact for the period 1971-2001 for 17 major states of India but remained sceptical about future growth prospects for India due to the major share of the rise in the working-age population in the economically weaker states which have poor infrastructure and a dearth of proper policies to absorb the growing workforce. More recently, the study by Joe et al (2018) used state-level panel data from 1980 to 2010 for 15 states of India and found no significant impact of growth in the share of the working-age population on the per capita income growth but could not control for several key policy variables.…”

Section: Demographic Dividend: the Indian Contextmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In 2020, the average age of the Indian population is 29 years, while in other countries such as the USA, Europe, and Japan, it is 40 years, 46 years, and 47 years, respectively (National Policy for Skill Development and Entrepreneurship Report, 2015). India's population-one of the youngest among the large nations of the world-is projected to have a potential growth-inducing impact on the economy (Aiyar & Mody, 2011;Bloom, 2011;Chandrasekhar, Ghosh, & Roychowdhury, 2006;James, 2008;Joe, Kumar, & Rajpal, 2018;Lee & Mason, 2006;Kumar, 2013;Ladusingh & Narayana, 2011;Mason, 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although a few studies have estimated demographic dividend for India in the past (Acharya, 2004;Aiyar & Mody, 2011;Bloom, 2011;Chandrasekhar et al, 2006;Desai, 2010;Goli & Pandey, 2010;James, 2008James, , 2011James & Goli, 2016;Joe et al, 2018;Kumar, 2013;Mitra & Nagarajan, 2005;Navaneetham, 2002;Thakur, 2012), all of them have assessed the database that belong to years before the country reached to favourable demographic phase. Considering, the country's present demographic scenario, and population and economic policy interests, there is a strong need for informing the level and pathways for reaping demographic dividend in India.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Demographic Change and Economic Growth in India

Jain¹,

Goli²

2021

Preprint

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In this paper, we assess the economic benefits of demographic changes in India by employing econometric models and robustness checks based on panel data gathered over a period of more than three decades. Our analysis highlights four key points. First, the contribution of India’s demographic dividend is estimated to be around 1.9 percentage points out of 12% average annual growth rate in per capita income during 1981–2015. Second, India’s demographic window of opportunity began in 2005, significantly improved after 2011, and will continue till 2061. Third, our empirical analysis supports the argument that the realisation of the demographic dividend is conditional on a conducive policy environment with enabling aspects such as quality education, good healthcare, decent employment opportunities, good infrastructure, and gender empowerment. Fourth, the working-age population in India contributes around one-fourth of the inequality in per capita income across states. Thus, to reap the maximum dividends from the available demographic window of opportunity, India needs to work towards enhancing the quality of education and healthcare in addition to providing good infrastructure, gender empowerment, and decent employment opportunities for the growing working-age population.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Demographic Change and Economic Growth in India

Jain

Goli

2021

SSRN Journal

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In this paper, we assess the economic benefits of demographic changes in India by employing econometric models and robustness checks based on panel data gathered over a period of more than three decades. Our analysis highlights four key points. First, the contribution of India's demographic dividend is estimated to be around 1.9 percentage points out of 12% average annual growth rate in per capita income during 1981-2015. Second, India's demographic window of opportunity began in 2005, significantly improved after 2011, and will continue till 2061.Third, our empirical analysis supports the argument that the realisation of the demographic dividend is conditional on a conducive policy environment with enabling aspects such as quality education, good healthcare, decent employment opportunities, good infrastructure, and gender empowerment. Fourth, the working-age population in India contributes around one-fourth of the inequality in per capita income across states. Thus, to reap the maximum dividends from the available demographic window of opportunity, India needs to work towards enhancing the quality of education and healthcare in addition to providing good infrastructure, gender empowerment, and decent employment opportunities for the growing working-age population.

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Swimming against the tide: economic growth and demographic dividend in India

Cited by 24 publications

References 21 publications

How does green talent influence China’s economic growth?

How does green talent influence China’s economic growth?

Demographic Change and Economic Growth in India

Demographic Change and Economic Growth in India

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